Bundesliga

2026/27 — After Matchday 4

Probability Evolution

Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.

Current Probabilities

# Team Win League Top 4 Relegation
1 Bayern Munich
78%
99.8% —
2 Dortmund
20.3%
96.9% —
3 Leverkusen
0.6%
49% 0.1%
4 Stuttgart
0.5%
40.6% 0.3%
5 Freiburg
0.3%
31.3% 0.3%
6 RB Leipzig
0.1%
18.6% 1.3%
7 Mainz
0.1%
20% 1%
8 SV 07 Elversberg
0%
18.4% 1%
9 Augsburg
0%
11.9% 1.9%
10 Ein Frankfurt
0%
2.5% 10.3%

Model Reasoning

Bayern Munich 78%

Bayern Munich (78% to win the league)

• Bayern Munich are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• There's high variance: Bayern Munich finish anywhere from 66 to 87 points across simulations.

• Bayern Munich are 2 points behind the leader with 30 matches left — within striking distance.

• Bayern Munich face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 77 points (avg position: 1.3)

Dortmund 20.3%

Dortmund (20% to win the league)

• Dortmund are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• There's high variance: Dortmund finish anywhere from 58 to 81 points across simulations.

• Dortmund hold a narrow 2-point lead with 30 matches remaining — it's very tight.

• Dortmund face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 70 points (avg position: 2.1)

Leverkusen 0.6%

Leverkusen (1% to win the league)

• Leverkusen are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• Leverkusen trail by 5 points — they need results to go their way.

• There's high variance: Leverkusen finish anywhere from 45 to 67 points across simulations.

• Leverkusen face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 56 points (avg position: 5.2)

Stuttgart 0.5%

Stuttgart (0% to win the league)

• Stuttgart are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• Stuttgart are 9 points adrift — only a remarkable run would close the gap.

• There's high variance: Stuttgart finish anywhere from 43 to 66 points across simulations.

• Stuttgart face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 55 points (avg position: 5.8)

Freiburg 0.3%

Freiburg (0% to win the league)

• There's high variance: Freiburg finish anywhere from 42 to 65 points across simulations.

• Freiburg are 2 points behind the leader with 30 matches left — within striking distance.

• Freiburg sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.

• Freiburg face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 53 points (avg position: 6.4)

Probabilities derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of remaining fixtures using the Dixon-Coles model. Updated after each matchday. Learn more about our methodology.