Model Performance
Transparent accuracy tracking. Every prediction is measured, every miss is counted.
Total Predictions
3,830
resolved of 3,890
Brier Score
0.1581
lower is better (0 = perfect)
Log Loss
0.5048
penalises confident mistakes
Calibration
When the model says 70%, does it happen 70% of the time? The closer to the diagonal, the better calibrated.
Brier Score Over Time
Monthly average Brier score. Lower values indicate better predictions. Months with fewer than 5 resolved predictions are excluded.
By Market
| Sport | Market | Predictions | Brier | Log Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycling | GC Winner | 3 | 0.9904 | 7.5514 |
| Cycling | Stage Winner | 600 | 0.0220 | 0.0847 |
| Cycling | Top 10 Finish | 600 | 0.1496 | 0.6916 |
| Football | 1X2 | 666 | 0.1991 | 0.5838 |
| Football | BTTS | 444 | 0.2464 | 0.6866 |
| Football | League Winner | 3 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Football | Over/Under 2.5 | 444 | 0.2564 | 0.7058 |
| Formula 1 | Fastest Lap | 21 | 0.0562 | 0.2171 |
| Formula 1 | Podium | 153 | 0.0997 | 0.3058 |
| Formula 1 | Race Winner | 153 | 0.0461 | 0.1659 |
| Formula 1 | Sprint Winner | 21 | 0.0457 | 0.1692 |
| Formula 1 | Top 6 | 153 | 0.1384 | 0.4209 |
| Tennis | Match Winner | 322 | 0.2250 | 0.6411 |
| WRC | Rally Podium | 43 | 0.1900 | 0.5608 |
| WRC | Rally Winner | 42 | 0.0829 | 0.2962 |
| WRC | Stage Winner | 162 | 0.0866 | 0.3095 |
By Sport
| Sport | Predictions | Brier | Log Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cycling | 1203 | 0.0881 | 0.4060 |
| Football | 1557 | 0.2286 | 0.6468 |
| Formula 1 | 501 | 0.0911 | 0.2888 |
| Tennis | 322 | 0.2250 | 0.6411 |
| WRC | 247 | 0.1040 | 0.3510 |
Model Versions
Each model change is tracked separately so improvements can be verified.
| Version | Sport | Predictions | Brier | Log Loss | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cycling-stage-v1 | Cycling | 1203 | 0.0881 | 0.4060 | active |
| dixon-coles-v6-reg | Football | 1113 | 0.2268 | 0.6431 | active |
| dixon-coles-v1 | Football | 220 | 0.2352 | 0.6607 | retired |
| dixon-coles-v5-intl | Football | 224 | 0.2309 | 0.6516 | retired |
| f1-plackett-luce-v1 | Formula 1 | 501 | 0.0911 | 0.2888 | active |
| tennis-elo-v1 | Tennis | 322 | 0.2250 | 0.6411 | active |
| wrc-elo-v1 | WRC | 247 | 0.1040 | 0.3510 | active |
Note: This is statistical information for educational and entertainment purposes.
It does not constitute betting advice. Past model accuracy does not guarantee future performance.
Proknoz has no affiliation with any betting operator.