Championship
Probability Evolution
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.
Current Probabilities
| # | Team | Win League | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 99.4% | — | |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 92.2% | — | |
| 3 | West Ham | 86.3% | — | |
| 4 | Birmingham | 31.6% | — | |
| 5 | Swansea | 26.6% | 0% | |
| 6 | Millwall | 20.6% | — | |
| 7 | Portsmouth | 5.7% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | Norwich | 7.7% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | QPR | 7.6% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | West Brom | 7.5% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | Sheffield United | 4% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | Wolves | 1.9% | 0.7% |
Model Reasoning
Southampton (72% to win the league)
• Southampton are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• There's high variance: Southampton finish anywhere from 85 to 108 points across simulations.
• Southampton face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
• Southampton are 1 points behind the leader with 34 matches left — within striking distance.
Projected finish: 96 points (avg position: 1.4)
Middlesbrough (16% to win the league)
• Middlesbrough are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• There's high variance: Middlesbrough finish anywhere from 76 to 100 points across simulations.
• Middlesbrough hold a narrow 1-point lead with 34 matches remaining — it's very tight.
• Middlesbrough face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 88 points (avg position: 2.6)
West Ham (10% to win the league)
• West Ham are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• West Ham are 3 points behind the leader with 34 matches left — within striking distance.
• There's high variance: West Ham finish anywhere from 73 to 97 points across simulations.
• West Ham face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 85 points (avg position: 3.1)
Birmingham (1% to win the league)
• Birmingham are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• Birmingham trail by 5 points — they need results to go their way.
• There's high variance: Birmingham finish anywhere from 63 to 87 points across simulations.
• Birmingham face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 74 points (avg position: 6.5)
Swansea (0% to win the league)
• There's high variance: Swansea finish anywhere from 61 to 86 points across simulations.
• Swansea are 2 points behind the leader with 34 matches left — within striking distance.
• Swansea sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
• Swansea face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 74 points (avg position: 7.0)