Championship
Probability Evolution
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.
Current Probabilities
| # | Team | Win League | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 66.4% | — | |
| 2 | West Ham | 61.9% | — | |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 47.1% | — | |
| 4 | Millwall | 37% | — | |
| 5 | Swansea | 47.2% | — | |
| 6 | Bristol City | 32.9% | — | |
| 7 | West Brom | 48% | — | |
| 8 | QPR | 30% | — | |
| 9 | Charlton | 17.4% | — | |
| 10 | Sheffield United | 11.5% | — |
Model Reasoning
Southampton (25% to win the league)
• Southampton are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• Southampton are 3 points behind the leader with 2 matches left — within striking distance.
• Simulations show a tight range: Southampton finish with 12–17 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Southampton face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 15 points (avg position: 3.8)
West Ham (20% to win the league)
• West Ham have a difficult run-in — 100% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.
• Simulations show a tight range: West Ham finish with 14–17 points in 90% of scenarios.
• West Ham hold a narrow 1-point lead with 1 matches remaining — it's very tight.
• West Ham sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
Projected finish: 15 points (avg position: 3.7)
Middlesbrough (15% to win the league)
• Middlesbrough have a difficult run-in — 67% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.
• Middlesbrough are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• Middlesbrough trail by 4 points — they need results to go their way.
• Simulations show a tight range: Middlesbrough finish with 11–19 points in 90% of scenarios.
Projected finish: 15 points (avg position: 5.4)
Millwall (12% to win the league)
• Millwall have a difficult run-in — 67% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.
• Millwall are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• Millwall trail by 5 points — they need results to go their way.
• Simulations show a tight range: Millwall finish with 10–18 points in 90% of scenarios.
Projected finish: 14 points (avg position: 6.4)
Swansea (8% to win the league)
• Swansea's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.
• Swansea are 3 points behind the leader with 2 matches left — within striking distance.
• Simulations show a tight range: Swansea finish with 12–17 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Swansea sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
Projected finish: 15 points (avg position: 5.0)