La Liga
Probability Evolution
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.
Current Probabilities
| # | Team | Win League | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 79.7% | — | |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 80.5% | 0% | |
| 3 | Sevilla | 74.7% | — | |
| 4 | Ath Madrid | 38.3% | — | |
| 5 | Betis | 37.2% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | Alaves | 38.3% | — | |
| 7 | Valencia | 13.6% | 8.4% | |
| 8 | RC Deportivo La Coruña | 10.9% | 10.7% |
Model Reasoning
FC Barcelona (37% to win the league)
• FC Barcelona's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.
• FC Barcelona are 3 points behind the leader with 2 matches left — within striking distance.
• Simulations show a tight range: FC Barcelona finish with 4–9 points in 90% of scenarios.
• FC Barcelona sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
Projected finish: 7 points (avg position: 3.0)
Real Madrid (30% to win the league)
• Real Madrid's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.
• Real Madrid are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• Real Madrid are 3 points behind the leader with 2 matches left — within striking distance.
• Simulations show a tight range: Real Madrid finish with 4–9 points in 90% of scenarios.
Projected finish: 7 points (avg position: 3.2)
Sevilla (20% to win the league)
• Sevilla have a difficult run-in — 100% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.
• Sevilla hold a narrow 2-point lead with 1 matches remaining — it's very tight.
• Simulations show a tight range: Sevilla finish with 6–9 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Sevilla are rated below average by the model, which limits their upside in simulations.
Projected finish: 7 points (avg position: 3.2)
Ath Madrid (4% to win the league)
• Ath Madrid have a difficult run-in — 100% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.
• Ath Madrid are 2 points behind the leader with 1 matches left — within striking distance.
• Simulations show a tight range: Ath Madrid finish with 4–7 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Ath Madrid sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
Projected finish: 5 points (avg position: 5.6)
Betis (4% to win the league)
• Betis's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.
• Betis are 3 points behind the leader with 2 matches left — within striking distance.
• Simulations show a tight range: Betis finish with 3–9 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Betis sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
Projected finish: 6 points (avg position: 6.6)