La Liga

2025/26 — After Matchday 38

Probability Evolution

Based on 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.

Current Probabilities

# Team Win League Top 4 Relegation
1 Villarreal
100%
100% —

Model Reasoning

Villarreal 100%

Villarreal (100% to win the league)

• Villarreal are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• Simulations show a tight range: Villarreal finish with 3–3 points in 90% of scenarios.

Projected finish: 3 points (avg position: 1.0)

Probabilities derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of remaining fixtures using the Dixon-Coles model. Updated after each matchday. Learn more about our methodology.