La Liga
Probability Evolution
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.
Current Probabilities
| # | Team | Win League | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 100% | — | |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 98% | — | |
| 3 | Betis | 67.6% | — | |
| 4 | Ath Madrid | 55.8% | 0% |
Model Reasoning
FC Barcelona (96% to win the league)
• FC Barcelona are 5 points clear, though the gap is not insurmountable with 31 matches to play.
• FC Barcelona are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• There's high variance: FC Barcelona finish anywhere from 83 to 103 points across simulations.
• FC Barcelona face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 93 points (avg position: 1.0)
Real Madrid (4% to win the league)
• Real Madrid trail by 6 points — they need results to go their way.
• Real Madrid are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• There's high variance: Real Madrid finish anywhere from 65 to 88 points across simulations.
• Real Madrid face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 77 points (avg position: 2.2)
Betis (0% to win the league)
• Betis trail by 5 points — they need results to go their way.
• There's high variance: Betis finish anywhere from 54 to 77 points across simulations.
• Betis sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
• Betis face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 65 points (avg position: 4.3)
Ath Madrid (0% to win the league)
• Ath Madrid trail by 5 points — they need results to go their way.
• There's high variance: Ath Madrid finish anywhere from 51 to 75 points across simulations.
• Ath Madrid sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
• Ath Madrid face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 63 points (avg position: 4.9)