Liga Portugal
Probability Evolution
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.
Current Probabilities
| # | Team | Win League | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 99.9% | — | |
| 2 | Sp Lisbon | 88.1% | — | |
| 3 | Santa Clara | 61.8% | — | |
| 4 | Maritimo | 51.9% | — | |
| 5 | Arouca | 49.1% | — | |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 13.7% | 0.1% |
Model Reasoning
Porto (71% to win the league)
• Porto's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.
• Porto are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• Porto hold a narrow 2-point lead with 1 matches remaining — it's very tight.
• Simulations show a tight range: Porto finish with 9–12 points in 90% of scenarios.
Projected finish: 11 points (avg position: 1.4)
Sp Lisbon (22% to win the league)
• Sp Lisbon's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.
• Sp Lisbon are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• Sp Lisbon are 2 points behind the leader with 1 matches left — within striking distance.
• Simulations show a tight range: Sp Lisbon finish with 7–10 points in 90% of scenarios.
Projected finish: 9 points (avg position: 2.5)
Santa Clara (3% to win the league)
• Santa Clara's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.
• Santa Clara are 2 points behind the leader with 1 matches left — within striking distance.
• Simulations show a tight range: Santa Clara finish with 7–10 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Santa Clara sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
Projected finish: 8 points (avg position: 4.3)
Maritimo (2% to win the league)
• Maritimo have a difficult run-in — 100% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.
• Maritimo are 2 points behind the leader with 1 matches left — within striking distance.
• Simulations show a tight range: Maritimo finish with 7–10 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Maritimo sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
Projected finish: 8 points (avg position: 4.6)
Arouca (1% to win the league)
• Arouca have a difficult run-in — 100% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.
• Arouca are 3 points behind the leader with 1 matches left — within striking distance.
• Simulations show a tight range: Arouca finish with 6–9 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Arouca sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
Projected finish: 8 points (avg position: 4.7)