Liga Portugal
Probability Evolution
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.
Current Probabilities
| # | Team | Win League | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 99.1% | — | |
| 2 | Porto | 99.2% | — | |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 96% | — | |
| 4 | Sp Braga | 43.9% | 0% | |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 21.3% | 0% | |
| 6 | Arouca | 23.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | Académico de Viseu FC | 9.2% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | Famalicao | 4.6% | 0.7% |
Model Reasoning
Benfica (42% to win the league)
• Benfica are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• Benfica trail by 5 points — they need results to go their way.
• There's high variance: Benfica finish anywhere from 64 to 84 points across simulations.
• Benfica face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 74 points (avg position: 1.9)
Porto (41% to win the league)
• Porto are 5 points clear, though the gap is not insurmountable with 27 matches to play.
• Porto are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• There's high variance: Porto finish anywhere from 64 to 84 points across simulations.
• Porto face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 74 points (avg position: 1.9)
Sp Lisbon (17% to win the league)
• Sp Lisbon trail by 6 points — they need results to go their way.
• Sp Lisbon are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• There's high variance: Sp Lisbon finish anywhere from 59 to 80 points across simulations.
• Sp Lisbon face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 70 points (avg position: 2.6)
Sp Braga (0% to win the league)
• Sp Braga are 10 points adrift — only a remarkable run would close the gap.
• Sp Braga are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• There's high variance: Sp Braga finish anywhere from 46 to 68 points across simulations.
• Sp Braga face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 57 points (avg position: 5.1)
Santa Clara (0% to win the league)
• Santa Clara trail by 6 points — they need results to go their way.
• There's high variance: Santa Clara finish anywhere from 43 to 65 points across simulations.
• Santa Clara sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
• Santa Clara face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.
Projected finish: 54 points (avg position: 6.2)