Ligue 1

2026/27 — After Matchday 5

Probability Evolution

Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.

Current Probabilities

# Team Win League Top 4 Relegation
1 Paris SG
45.4%
90.5% —
2 Monaco
23.6%
77.7% 0%
3 Lyon
15.2%
67% 0%
4 Paris FC
6.2%
46% 0.1%
5 Lens
3.6%
35% 0.4%
6 Rennes
2.2%
25.9% 0.7%
7 Lille
2.1%
27.1% 0.5%
8 Strasbourg
1.2%
16.8% 1.6%
9 Lorient
0.4%
5.9% 5.2%
10 Le Mans FC
0.1%
3.5% 9.4%
11 Marseille
0.1%
1.4% 17.3%
12 Toulouse
0%
0.8% 23.6%
13 Troyes
0%
0% 52.3%

Model Reasoning

Paris SG 45.4%

Paris SG (45% to win the league)

• Paris SG are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• Paris SG trail by 5 points — they need results to go their way.

• There's high variance: Paris SG finish anywhere from 54 to 76 points across simulations.

• Paris SG face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 66 points (avg position: 2.2)

Monaco 23.6%

Monaco (24% to win the league)

• Monaco are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• There's high variance: Monaco finish anywhere from 51 to 74 points across simulations.

• Monaco hold a narrow 2-point lead with 29 matches remaining — it's very tight.

• Monaco face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 62 points (avg position: 3.2)

Lyon 15.2%

Lyon (15% to win the league)

• Lyon are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• There's high variance: Lyon finish anywhere from 48 to 71 points across simulations.

• Lyon are 2 points behind the leader with 29 matches left — within striking distance.

• Lyon face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 60 points (avg position: 3.9)

Paris FC 6.2%

Paris FC (6% to win the league)

• Paris FC are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• There's high variance: Paris FC finish anywhere from 45 to 68 points across simulations.

• Paris FC are 2 points behind the leader with 29 matches left — within striking distance.

• Paris FC face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 56 points (avg position: 5.1)

Lens 3.6%

Lens (4% to win the league)

• Lens are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• Lens are 9 points adrift — only a remarkable run would close the gap.

• There's high variance: Lens finish anywhere from 43 to 65 points across simulations.

• Lens face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 54 points (avg position: 5.9)

Probabilities derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of remaining fixtures using the Dixon-Coles model. Updated after each matchday. Learn more about our methodology.