Ligue 1

2026/27 — After Matchday 1

Probability Evolution

Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.

Current Probabilities

# Team Win League Top 4 Relegation
1 Lens
36.9%
69.5% —
2 Marseille
21.9%
49.2% —
3 Lyon
18.3%
70.2% —
4 Monaco
14.5%
51.5% —
5 Lille
7.9%
48.7% —
6 Rennes
0.3%
28.9% 1.7%
7 Paris SG
0.1%
21.1% 2.4%
8 Brest
0.1%
15.7% 3.8%
9 Paris FC
0%
17.4% 1.8%
10 Le Mans FC
0%
8.6% 8.3%
11 Lorient
0%
12.8% 2.6%

Model Reasoning

Lens 36.9%

Lens (37% to win the league)

• Lens's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.

• Lens are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• Simulations show a tight range: Lens finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.

• Lens are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.

Projected finish: 5 points (avg position: 3.5)

Marseille 21.9%

Marseille (22% to win the league)

• Marseille have a difficult run-in — 100% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.

• Simulations show a tight range: Marseille finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.

• Marseille sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.

Projected finish: 4 points (avg position: 4.7)

Lyon 18.3%

Lyon (18% to win the league)

• Lyon's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.

• Lyon are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• Simulations show a tight range: Lyon finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.

• Lyon are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.

Projected finish: 5 points (avg position: 3.7)

Monaco 14.5%

Monaco (15% to win the league)

• Monaco have a difficult run-in — 100% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.

• Simulations show a tight range: Monaco finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.

• Monaco are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.

• Monaco sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.

Projected finish: 5 points (avg position: 4.8)

Lille 7.9%

Lille (8% to win the league)

• Lille have a difficult run-in — 100% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.

• Lille are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• Simulations show a tight range: Lille finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.

• Lille are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.

Projected finish: 4 points (avg position: 5.4)

Probabilities derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of remaining fixtures using the Dixon-Coles model. Updated after each matchday. Learn more about our methodology.