Premier League

2026/27 — After Matchday 5

Probability Evolution

Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.

Current Probabilities

# Team Win League Top 4 Relegation
1 Manchester City FC
55.1%
95.2% —
2 Arsenal
30.8%
89.7% —
3 Man United
6.4%
60.1% 0.1%
4 Brighton
3.5%
43.1% 0.1%
5 Liverpool
1.8%
30.1% 0.3%
6 Brentford
0.9%
19.9% 0.7%
7 Ipswich
0.5%
16.3% 1.2%
8 Coventry
0.3%
10.6% 1.6%
9 Hull
0.2%
8.2% 2.1%
10 Nott'm Forest
0.2%
7% 2.8%
11 Leeds United FC
0.2%
6.9% 2.5%
12 Everton
0.1%
4.7% 3.8%
13 AFC Bournemouth
0%
4.8% 4.6%
14 Newcastle
0%
1.5% 12.2%
15 Chelsea FC
0%
1% 15.8%

Model Reasoning

Manchester City FC 55.1%

Manchester City FC (55% to win the league)

• Manchester City FC hold a narrow 3-point lead with 33 matches remaining — it's very tight.

• Manchester City FC are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• There's high variance: Manchester City FC finish anywhere from 64 to 88 points across simulations.

• Manchester City FC face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 76 points (avg position: 1.8)

Arsenal 30.8%

Arsenal (31% to win the league)

• Arsenal are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• Arsenal are 3 points behind the leader with 33 matches left — within striking distance.

• There's high variance: Arsenal finish anywhere from 60 to 84 points across simulations.

• Arsenal face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 72 points (avg position: 2.5)

Man United 6.4%

Man United (6% to win the league)

• Man United are 10 points adrift — only a remarkable run would close the gap.

• Man United are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• There's high variance: Man United finish anywhere from 53 to 76 points across simulations.

• Man United face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 65 points (avg position: 4.6)

Brighton 3.5%

Brighton (3% to win the league)

• Brighton are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• Brighton trail by 5 points — they need results to go their way.

• There's high variance: Brighton finish anywhere from 49 to 74 points across simulations.

• Brighton face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 62 points (avg position: 5.7)

Liverpool 1.8%

Liverpool (2% to win the league)

• Liverpool trail by 6 points — they need results to go their way.

• Liverpool are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• There's high variance: Liverpool finish anywhere from 48 to 72 points across simulations.

• Liverpool face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 60 points (avg position: 6.7)

Probabilities derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of remaining fixtures using the Dixon-Coles model. Updated after each matchday. Learn more about our methodology.