Premier League

2025/26 — After Matchday 38

Probability Evolution

Based on 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.

Current Probabilities

#	Team	Win League	Top 4	Relegation
1	Man United	100%	100%	—

Model Reasoning

Man United (100% to win the league)

• Simulations show a tight range: Man United finish with 3–3 points in 90% of scenarios.

• Man United are rated below average by the model, which limits their upside in simulations.

Projected finish: 3 points (avg position: 1.0)

Probabilities derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of remaining fixtures using the Dixon-Coles model. Updated after each matchday. Learn more about our methodology.