Premier League
Probability Evolution
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.
Current Probabilities
| # | Team | Win League | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 68.5% | — | |
| 2 | Brentford | 58.5% | — | |
| 3 | Manchester City FC | 64.1% | — | |
| 4 | Leeds United FC | 42.4% | — | |
| 5 | Everton | 37.6% | — | |
| 6 | Hull | 34.8% | — | |
| 7 | Ipswich | 37.5% | — | |
| 8 | Liverpool | 24.7% | 1% | |
| 9 | Newcastle | 19.9% | 2.2% |
Model Reasoning
Arsenal (35% to win the league)
• Arsenal's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.
• Arsenal are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• Simulations show a tight range: Arsenal finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Arsenal are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.
Projected finish: 5 points (avg position: 3.5)
Brentford (22% to win the league)
• Brentford have a difficult run-in — 100% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.
• Simulations show a tight range: Brentford finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Brentford are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.
• Brentford sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
Projected finish: 4 points (avg position: 4.3)
Manchester City FC (16% to win the league)
• Manchester City FC's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.
• Manchester City FC are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• Simulations show a tight range: Manchester City FC finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Manchester City FC are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.
Projected finish: 5 points (avg position: 4.3)
Leeds United FC (8% to win the league)
• Leeds United FC have a difficult run-in — 100% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.
• Simulations show a tight range: Leeds United FC finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Leeds United FC are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.
• Leeds United FC sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
Projected finish: 4 points (avg position: 5.9)
Everton (6% to win the league)
• Everton's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.
• Simulations show a tight range: Everton finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Everton are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.
• Everton sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
Projected finish: 4 points (avg position: 6.2)