Serie A

2025/26 — After Matchday 38

Probability Evolution

Based on 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.

Current Probabilities

# Team Win League Top 4 Relegation
1 Como
100%
100%

Model Reasoning

Como 100%

Como (100% to win the league)

• Simulations show a tight range: Como finish with 3–3 points in 90% of scenarios.

• Como sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.

Projected finish: 3 points (avg position: 1.0)

Probabilities derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of remaining fixtures using the Dixon-Coles model. Updated after each matchday. Learn more about our methodology.