Serie A

2026/27 — After Matchday 5

Probability Evolution

Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.

Current Probabilities

# Team Win League Top 4 Relegation
1 Inter
42.8%
97.2% —
2 Roma
35.4%
96% —
3 Como
18.2%
90.8% —
4 Juventus
2.9%
55.2% —
5 AC Milan
0.2%
14.8% 0%
6 Frosinone
0.1%
12.9% 0.1%
7 Lazio
0.1%
8.3% 0.3%
8 Napoli
0.1%
11.6% 0.1%
9 Atalanta
0.1%
6.2% 0.4%
10 Cagliari
0.1%
5.3% 0.4%
11 Udinese
0%
1.3% 2.9%

Model Reasoning

Inter 42.8%

Inter (43% to win the league)

• Inter are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• There's high variance: Inter finish anywhere from 68 to 91 points across simulations.

• Inter are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.

• Inter face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 80 points (avg position: 2.0)

Roma 35.4%

Roma (35% to win the league)

• Roma are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• There's high variance: Roma finish anywhere from 67 to 90 points across simulations.

• Roma face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 79 points (avg position: 2.1)

Como 18.2%

Como (18% to win the league)

• Como are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• Como are 3 points behind the leader with 33 matches left — within striking distance.

• There's high variance: Como finish anywhere from 64 to 87 points across simulations.

• Como face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 75 points (avg position: 2.8)

Juventus 2.9%

Juventus (3% to win the league)

• Juventus are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.

• Juventus are 3 points behind the leader with 33 matches left — within striking distance.

• There's high variance: Juventus finish anywhere from 55 to 79 points across simulations.

• Juventus face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 67 points (avg position: 4.7)

AC Milan 0.2%

AC Milan (0% to win the league)

• There's high variance: AC Milan finish anywhere from 48 to 72 points across simulations.

• AC Milan are 2 points behind the leader with 33 matches left — within striking distance.

• AC Milan sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.

• AC Milan face a mixed run-in with a balance of tough and easier fixtures.

Projected finish: 59 points (avg position: 7.2)

Probabilities derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of remaining fixtures using the Dixon-Coles model. Updated after each matchday. Learn more about our methodology.