Serie A
Probability Evolution
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.
Current Probabilities
| # | Team | Win League | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 82.2% | — | |
| 2 | Juventus | 81% | — | |
| 3 | AC Milan | 71.3% | — | |
| 4 | Napoli | 61.8% | — | |
| 5 | Cagliari | 29.2% | — | |
| 6 | Como | 32.7% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | Udinese | 24.1% | 0.7% |
Model Reasoning
Inter (54% to win the league)
• Inter have a difficult run-in — 100% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.
• Inter are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• Simulations show a tight range: Inter finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.
Projected finish: 5 points (avg position: 2.4)
Juventus (15% to win the league)
• Juventus's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.
• Juventus are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• Simulations show a tight range: Juventus finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Juventus are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.
Projected finish: 5 points (avg position: 3.4)
AC Milan (13% to win the league)
• AC Milan's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.
• Simulations show a tight range: AC Milan finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.
• AC Milan are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.
• AC Milan sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
Projected finish: 5 points (avg position: 4.1)
Napoli (12% to win the league)
• Napoli's remaining schedule is favourable — 100% of their matches are against bottom-half teams.
• Napoli are among the top-rated teams in the model, boosting their chances in simulated fixtures.
• Simulations show a tight range: Napoli finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Napoli are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.
Projected finish: 4 points (avg position: 4.5)
Cagliari (6% to win the league)
• Cagliari have a difficult run-in — 100% of their remaining matches are against top-half sides.
• Simulations show a tight range: Cagliari finish with 3–6 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Cagliari are level on points with the leaders — everything to play for.
• Cagliari are rated below average by the model, which limits their upside in simulations.
Projected finish: 4 points (avg position: 6.5)