Serie A
Probability Evolution
Based on 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.
Current Probabilities
| # | Team | Win League | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Como | 100% | — |
Model Reasoning
Como
100%
Como (100% to win the league)
• Simulations show a tight range: Como finish with 3–3 points in 90% of scenarios.
• Como sit in the middle of the model's team ratings.
Projected finish: 3 points (avg position: 1.0)
Probabilities derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of remaining fixtures
using the Dixon-Coles model. Updated after each matchday.
Learn more about our methodology.