World Cup
Probability Evolution
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.
Current Probabilities
| # | Team | Group | Advance | Quarters | Semis | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | H | 100% | 53.3% | 43.2% | 28.5% | |
| 2 | Argentina | J | 100% | 69.1% | 51.5% | 26.8% | |
| 3 | France | I | 100% | 43.4% | 29.6% | 16% | |
| 4 | Germany | E | 100% | 44.7% | 28% | 12.9% | |
| 5 | Portugal | K | 100% | 32.6% | 22.4% | 10.5% | |
| 6 | Morocco | C | 100% | 32% | 15.7% | 8.8% | |
| 7 | Brazil | C | 100% | 38.2% | 23.9% | 14.2% | |
| 8 | Belgium | G | 100% | 46.2% | 16.1% | 7.6% | |
| 9 | England | L | 100% | 43.8% | 19.4% | 11.7% | |
| 10 | Japan | F | 100% | 27.2% | 17.6% | 10.7% | |
| 11 | Netherlands | F | 100% | 28.6% | 11% | 5.2% | |
| 12 | Mexico | A | 100% | 39.5% | 15.3% | 8.5% | |
| 13 | Ivory Coast | E | 100% | 19.6% | 11.3% | 6.3% | |
| 14 | Norway | I | 100% | 15% | 8.7% | 4.4% | |
| 15 | Colombia | K | 100% | 33.1% | 11.3% | 4.4% | |
| 16 | Switzerland | B | 100% | 39.7% | 12.8% | 4% | |
| 17 | Senegal | I | 100% | 19.7% | 5.6% | 2.3% | |
| 18 | Egypt | G | 100% | 17.4% | 10.7% | 3.9% | |
| 19 | Canada | B | 100% | 24.4% | 7.3% | 2.6% | |
| 20 | Croatia | L | 100% | 9.8% | 6% | 1.8% | |
| 21 | Algeria | J | 100% | 21.1% | 5.9% | 1.8% | |
| 22 | Paraguay | D | 100% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | Austria | J | 100% | 4.4% | 2% | 0.7% | |
| 24 | Ecuador | E | 100% | 13% | 3.3% | 1.5% | |
| 25 | South Africa | A | 100% | 15.1% | 3.2% | 0.9% | |
| 26 | United States | D | 100% | 27.5% | 4.2% | 0.8% | |
| 27 | Sweden | F | 100% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | Australia | D | 100% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 1.2% | |
| 29 | Cape Verde Islands | H | 100% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | Ghana | L | 100% | 6.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | B | 100% | 6.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Model Reasoning
Spain (22% to win the tournament)
• Spain win the whole tournament in 22% of simulations — among the top contenders.
• Spain are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• Spain are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 43% reach semis, 22% win it all.
Argentina (12% to win the tournament)
• Argentina win the whole tournament in 12% of simulations — among the top contenders.
• Argentina are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• Argentina are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 52% reach semis, 12% win it all.
France (10% to win the tournament)
• France are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• France are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
• France lift the trophy in 10% of simulations — a credible outside shot.
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 30% reach semis, 10% win it all.
Germany (7% to win the tournament)
• Germany are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• Germany are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
• Germany lift the trophy in 7% of simulations — a credible outside shot.
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 28% reach semis, 7% win it all.
Portugal (6% to win the tournament)
• Portugal are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• Portugal are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
• Portugal lift the trophy in 6% of simulations — a credible outside shot.
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 22% reach semis, 6% win it all.