World Cup
Probability Evolution
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.
Current Probabilities
| # | Team | Group | Advance | Quarters | Semis | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | H | 100% | 52.7% | 42.6% | 25.8% | |
| 2 | Argentina | J | 100% | 71.4% | 53% | 30.9% | |
| 3 | France | I | 100% | 47.3% | 34.1% | 20% | |
| 4 | Germany | E | 100% | 40.3% | 25.8% | 13.1% | |
| 5 | England | L | 100% | 50.1% | 23.7% | 13.3% | |
| 6 | Brazil | C | 100% | 40% | 24.9% | 13.5% | |
| 7 | Portugal | K | 100% | 34.6% | 23.3% | 10.2% | |
| 8 | Belgium | G | 100% | 43.9% | 16.1% | 7.3% | |
| 9 | Morocco | C | 100% | 31.2% | 13.7% | 7.7% | |
| 10 | Japan | F | 100% | 26.3% | 16.6% | 8.9% | |
| 11 | Netherlands | F | 100% | 29.5% | 10.9% | 5.3% | |
| 12 | Switzerland | B | 100% | 43.7% | 15.8% | 7% | |
| 13 | Ivory Coast | E | 100% | 17.9% | 10.2% | 4.8% | |
| 14 | Mexico | A | 100% | 34.1% | 11.9% | 4.8% | |
| 15 | Norway | I | 100% | 15.8% | 9.1% | 4.1% | |
| 16 | Egypt | G | 100% | 15.4% | 8.7% | 3.4% | |
| 17 | Colombia | K | 100% | 30.7% | 10.3% | 4.2% | |
| 18 | Canada | B | 100% | 24.1% | 7.2% | 3.1% | |
| 19 | Senegal | I | 100% | 18.6% | 5.2% | 1.7% | |
| 20 | Algeria | J | 100% | 19.5% | 6% | 2.4% | |
| 21 | Paraguay | D | 100% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | United States | D | 100% | 29.5% | 5.6% | 1.2% | |
| 23 | Austria | J | 100% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | |
| 24 | Sweden | F | 100% | 4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | South Africa | A | 100% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | Croatia | L | 100% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | Ecuador | E | 100% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | |
| 28 | Australia | D | 100% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 0.8% | |
| 29 | Ghana | L | 100% | 6.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | Cape Verde Islands | H | 100% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | Congo DR | K | 100% | 4.5% | 1% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | B | 100% | 8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
Model Reasoning
Spain (18% to win the tournament)
• Spain win the whole tournament in 18% of simulations — among the top contenders.
• Spain are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• Spain are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 43% reach semis, 18% win it all.
Argentina (16% to win the tournament)
• Argentina win the whole tournament in 16% of simulations — among the top contenders.
• Argentina are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• Argentina are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 53% reach semis, 16% win it all.
France (13% to win the tournament)
• France win the whole tournament in 13% of simulations — among the top contenders.
• France are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• France are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 34% reach semis, 13% win it all.
Germany (7% to win the tournament)
• Germany are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• Germany are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
• Germany lift the trophy in 7% of simulations — a credible outside shot.
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 26% reach semis, 7% win it all.
England (6% to win the tournament)
• England are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• England are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
• England lift the trophy in 6% of simulations — a credible outside shot.
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 24% reach semis, 6% win it all.