World Cup
Probability Evolution
Based on 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations per snapshot. Shows top teams; others grouped.
Current Probabilities
| # | Team | Group | Advance | Quarters | Semis | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | I | 100% | 56,9% | 43,3% | 29,5% | |
| 2 | Spain | H | 100% | 48,4% | 38,1% | 20,3% | |
| 3 | Argentina | J | 100% | 68,5% | 49,6% | 24,5% | |
| 4 | Morocco | C | 100% | 33,7% | 14,5% | 8,9% | |
| 5 | Brazil | C | 100% | 38,2% | 25% | 15,3% | |
| 6 | Portugal | K | 100% | 35,6% | 23,9% | 9,2% | |
| 7 | Germany | E | 100% | 33,9% | 20,7% | 10,2% | |
| 8 | Belgium | G | 100% | 45,6% | 17,1% | 6,8% | |
| 9 | England | L | 100% | 44,2% | 18,4% | 11,5% | |
| 10 | Japan | F | 100% | 26,2% | 16,9% | 9,6% | |
| 11 | Netherlands | F | 100% | 30% | 10% | 4,9% | |
| 12 | Ivory Coast | E | 100% | 21,5% | 12,9% | 7% | |
| 13 | Mexico | A | 100% | 39,8% | 14,5% | 7,7% | |
| 14 | Colombia | K | 100% | 32,7% | 12,7% | 5% | |
| 15 | Norway | I | 100% | 14,1% | 8,7% | 5,2% | |
| 16 | Switzerland | B | 100% | 43,2% | 13,8% | 5,1% | |
| 17 | Senegal | I | 100% | 20,9% | 6,6% | 2,5% | |
| 18 | Egypt | G | 100% | 18,1% | 11,3% | 3,8% | |
| 19 | Canada | B | 100% | 23,2% | 5,7% | 2,4% | |
| 20 | Croatia | L | 100% | 10,9% | 6,5% | 1,9% | |
| 21 | Algeria | J | 100% | 19,3% | 5,6% | 2% | |
| 22 | Ecuador | E | 100% | 13% | 3,1% | 1,4% | |
| 23 | United States | D | 100% | 27,3% | 4,7% | 1% | |
| 24 | Australia | D | 100% | 9,1% | 4,4% | 1,3% | |
| 25 | Paraguay | D | 100% | 6,6% | 2,8% | 0,9% | |
| 26 | Austria | J | 100% | 5,1% | 2,7% | 0,7% | |
| 27 | Sweden | F | 100% | 2,7% | 1,2% | 0,4% | |
| 28 | South Africa | A | 100% | 13,1% | 1,8% | 0,4% | |
| 29 | Ghana | L | 100% | 4,8% | 1% | 0,1% | |
| 30 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | B | 100% | 6,2% | 0,5% | 0% |
Model Reasoning
France (21% to win the tournament)
• France win the whole tournament in 21% of simulations — among the top contenders.
• France are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• France are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 43% reach semis, 21% win it all.
Spain (14% to win the tournament)
• Spain win the whole tournament in 14% of simulations — among the top contenders.
• Spain are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• Spain are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 38% reach semis, 14% win it all.
Argentina (11% to win the tournament)
• Argentina are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• Argentina are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
• Argentina lift the trophy in 11% of simulations — a credible outside shot.
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 50% reach semis, 11% win it all.
Morocco (6% to win the tournament)
• Morocco are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• Morocco are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
• Morocco lift the trophy in 6% of simulations — a credible outside shot.
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 15% reach semis, 6% win it all.
Brazil (6% to win the tournament)
• Brazil are among the strongest sides in the model's ratings, which drives their deep-run probability.
• Brazil are heavy favourites to advance from their group (100% in simulations).
• Brazil lift the trophy in 6% of simulations — a credible outside shot.
Simulated run: 100% advance group, 25% reach semis, 6% win it all.