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Critérium du Dauphiné

2026 France Stage Race
Finished
8 / 8 stages completed

Predictions

Stage Winner — Stage 8

Oscar Onley
26%
Juan Ayuso
26%
Joao Almeida
26%
Isaac Del Toro
9%
Mattias Skjelmose
4%
Jorgen Nordhagen
2%
Matteo Jorgenson
2%
Wout Van Aert
1%

Top 10 Probability

Joao Almeida
100%
Juan Ayuso
100%
Oscar Onley
100%
Isaac Del Toro
100%
Mattias Skjelmose
48%
Jorgen Nordhagen
30%
Matteo Jorgenson
21%
Wout Van Aert
15%

Model Reasoning

Joao Almeida is the favourite (26%) for this mountain stage. Key factors: limited climbing ability; not a GC rider — unlikely to contest the stage win; and strong mountain stage record (32% top-5 rate). Main threats: Juan Ayuso (26%) — limited climbing ability; Oscar Onley (26%) — limited climbing ability.

General Classification

Pos Rider Team Gap GC Win %
1 Isaac Del Toro UAE Team Emirates - XRG Leader
2 Luke Tuckwell Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe +54" 1%
3 Juan Ayuso Lidl - Trek +1'17" 1%
4 Matteo Jorgenson Team Visma | Lease a Bike +1'36"
5 Tobias Halland Johannessen Uno-X Mobility +1'46" 1%
6 Mattias Skjelmose Lidl - Trek +2'41" 1%
7 Cian Uijtdebroeks Movistar Team +3'11"
8 Cristian Rodriguez XDS Astana Team +3'15" 1%
9 Guillaume Martin Caja Rural - Seguros RGA +6'25"
10 Jose Felix Parra Groupama - FDJ United +7'21"
11 Jan Castellon Caja Rural - Seguros RGA +9'46"
12 Alex Baudin EF Education - EasyPost +11'07" 1%
13 Ramses Debruyne Alpecin - Premier Tech +11'51"
14 Lars Craps Lotto Intermarché +12'27"
15 Kevin Vauquelin Netcompany INEOS +12'43"
16 Lennart Jasch Tudor Pro Cycling Team +13'45"
17 Ben Tulett Team Visma | Lease a Bike +14'28"
18 Clement Berthet Groupama - FDJ United +14'30"
19 Kevin Vermaerke UAE Team Emirates - XRG +19'51" 1%
20 Carlos Rodriguez Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe +19'59"

Stages

Stage 1 Mountain
146 km ▲ 3 202 m
1 Alex Baudin EF Education - EasyPost 3:43:58
2 Ramses Debruyne Alpecin - Premier Tech +32"
3 Leo Bisiaux Decathlon CMA CGM Team s.t.
4 Kevin Vermaerke UAE Team Emirates - XRG s.t.
5 Rudy Molard Groupama - FDJ United s.t.
Stage 2 Hilly
234 km ▲ 3 687 m
1 Anthon Charmig Uno-X Mobility 5:40:29
2 Henri-Francois Renard-Haquin Team Picnic PostNL +41"
3 Vlad Van Mechelen Bahrain - Victorious s.t.
4 Raul Garcia Pierna Movistar Team +43"
5 Clement Braz Afonso Groupama - FDJ United +44"
Stage 3 TT
28 km ▲ 402 m
1 Alex Baudin EF Education - EasyPost
2 Kevin Vauquelin Netcompany INEOS +12"
3 Oscar Onley Netcompany INEOS s.t.
4 Matteo Jorgenson Team Visma | Lease a Bike +15"
5 Juan Ayuso Lidl - Trek +47"
Stage 4 Hilly
167 km ▲ 2 111 m
1 Quinn Simmons Lidl - Trek 3:34:08
2 Finn Fisher-Black Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe s.t.
3 Matteo Vercher TotalEnergies s.t.
4 Marco Frigo NSN Cycling Team s.t.
5 Raul Garcia Pierna Movistar Team s.t.
Stage 5 Flat
196 km ▲ 2 200 m
1 Wout Van Aert Team Visma | Lease a Bike 4:31:59
2 Hugo Hofstetter NSN Cycling Team s.t.
3 Phil Bauhaus Bahrain - Victorious s.t.
4 Vito Braet Lotto Intermarché s.t.
5 Henri-Francois Renard-Haquin Team Picnic PostNL s.t.
Stage 6 Mountain
182 km ▲ 2 946 m
1 Maxim Van Gils Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe 4:06:34
2 Tobias Halland Johannessen Uno-X Mobility s.t.
3 Luke Tuckwell Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe +6"
4 Pablo Torres UAE Team Emirates - XRG +13"
5 Raul Garcia Pierna Movistar Team +33"
Stage 7 Mountain
134 km ▲ 3 728 m
1 Isaac Del Toro UAE Team Emirates - XRG 3:41:41
2 Juan Ayuso Lidl - Trek +24"
3 Tobias Halland Johannessen Uno-X Mobility +38"
4 Matteo Jorgenson Team Visma | Lease a Bike +41"
5 Cian Uijtdebroeks Movistar Team s.t.
Stage 8 Mountain
120 km ▲ 4 051 m
1 Isaac Del Toro UAE Team Emirates - XRG 3:35:07
2 Juan Ayuso Lidl - Trek +1'00"
3 Tobias Halland Johannessen Uno-X Mobility +1'02"
4 Mattias Skjelmose Lidl - Trek +1'31"
5 Cristian Rodriguez XDS Astana Team s.t.

Prediction Accuracy

Market Predicted Actual Result
GC Winner Haimar Etxeberria (1%) Isaac Del Toro ✗ Wrong