Tour de France
Finished
21 / 21 stages completed
Predictions
Stage Winner — Stage 21
Top 10 Probability
Model Reasoning
Tadej Pogacar is the contender (10%) for this flat sprint stage. Key factors: limited sprinting speed (not a natural sprinter); solid sprint pedigree (38% top-5 rate in sprint stages); and fresh legs (early in the race). Main threats: Mads Pedersen (10%) — limited sprinting speed (not a natural sprinter); Olav Kooij (10%) — limited sprinting speed (not a natural sprinter).
General Classification
| Pos | Rider | Team | Gap | GC Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tadej Pogacar | UAE Team Emirates - XRG | Leader | 99% |
| 2 | Remco Evenepoel | Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe | +6'26" | 1% |
| 12 | Tobias Halland Johannessen | Uno-X Mobility | +56'37" | |
| 17 | Tiesj Benoot | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | +1h32'56" | |
| 27 | Maxim Van Gils | Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe | +2h24'09" | |
| 52 | Michael Matthews | Team Jayco AlUla | +3h37'35" | |
| 54 | Javier Romo | Movistar Team | +3h41'49" | |
| 57 | Romain Gregoire | Groupama - FDJ United | +3h50'00" | |
| 59 | Ben Healy | EF Education - EasyPost | +3h51'03" | |
| 61 | Alexandre Delettre | TotalEnergies | +4h03'16" | |
| 65 | Nelson Oliveira | Movistar Team | +4h17'56" | |
| 66 | Vlad Van Mechelen | Bahrain - Victorious | +4h18'07" | |
| 69 | Clement Russo | Cofidis | +4h20'25" | |
| 71 | Jasper Stuyven | Soudal Quick-Step | +4h22'49" | |
| 73 | Rick Pluimers | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | +4h24'31" | |
| 75 | Mathieu Van Der Poel | Alpecin - Premier Tech | +4h26'28" | |
| 77 | Jonas Abrahamsen | Uno-X Mobility | +4h30'23" | |
| 80 | Mads Pedersen | Lidl - Trek | +4h33'05" | |
| 81 | Brent Van Moer | Pinarello Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | +4h33'14" | |
| 82 | Victor Campenaerts | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | +4h34'17" |
Stages
Stage 1
Mountain
20 km
▲ 167 m
✓
1
Jonas Vingegaard
Team Visma | Lease a Bike
—
2
Filippo Ganna
Netcompany INEOS
+8"
3
Tadej Pogacar
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
+12"
4
Juan Ayuso
Lidl - Trek
+16"
5
Remco Evenepoel
Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
+19"
Stage 2
Mountain
169 km
▲ 2,049 m
✓
1
Isaac Del Toro
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
3:40:01
-10″
2
Tadej Pogacar
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
s.t.
-6″
3
Remco Evenepoel
Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
s.t.
-4″
4
Jonas Vingegaard
Team Visma | Lease a Bike
s.t.
5
Mattias Skjelmose
Lidl - Trek
+3"
Stage 3
Mountain
196 km
▲ 3,940 m
✓
1
Tadej Pogacar
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
4:45:11
-10″
2
Jonas Vingegaard
Team Visma | Lease a Bike
+2"
-6″
3
Richard Carapaz
EF Education - EasyPost
s.t.
-4″
4
Paul Seixas
Decathlon CMA CGM Team
s.t.
5
Tobias Halland Johannessen
Uno-X Mobility
+4"
Stage 4
Hilly
182 km
▲ 2,784 m
✓
1
Mads Pedersen
Lidl - Trek
4:10:45
-10″
2
Quinn Simmons
Lidl - Trek
s.t.
-6″
3
Raul Garcia Pierna
Movistar Team
s.t.
-4″
4
Marco Frigo
NSN Cycling Team
s.t.
5
Ramses Debruyne
Alpecin - Premier Tech
s.t.
Stage 5
Flat
158 km
▲ 1,395 m
✓
1
Olav Kooij
Decathlon CMA CGM Team
3:29:07
-10″
2
Max Kanter
XDS Astana Team
s.t.
-6″
3
Tim Merlier
Soudal Quick-Step
s.t.
-4″
4
Huub Artz
Lotto Intermarché
s.t.
5
Jasper Philipsen
Alpecin - Premier Tech
s.t.
Stage 6
Mountain
186 km
▲ 4,149 m
✓
1
Tadej Pogacar
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
4:32:07
-10″
2
Jonas Vingegaard
Team Visma | Lease a Bike
+2'38"
-6″
3
Isaac Del Toro
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
+2'57"
-4″
4
Remco Evenepoel
Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
s.t.
5
Paul Seixas
Decathlon CMA CGM Team
s.t.
Stage 7
Flat
175 km
▲ 701 m
✓
1
Tim Merlier
Soudal Quick-Step
3:44:20
-10″
2
Soren Waerenskjold
Uno-X Mobility
s.t.
-6″
3
Biniam Girmay
NSN Cycling Team
s.t.
-4″
4
Max Kanter
XDS Astana Team
s.t.
5
Jasper Philipsen
Alpecin - Premier Tech
s.t.
Stage 8
Flat
180 km
▲ 1,353 m
✓
1
Tim Merlier
Soudal Quick-Step
3:52:50
-10″
2
Biniam Girmay
NSN Cycling Team
s.t.
-6″
3
Olav Kooij
Decathlon CMA CGM Team
s.t.
-4″
4
Jasper Philipsen
Alpecin - Premier Tech
s.t.
5
Pavel Bittner
Team Picnic PostNL
s.t.
Stage 9
Hilly
155 km
▲ 2,792 m
✓
1
Mathieu Van Der Poel
Alpecin - Premier Tech
3:27:51
-10″
2
Tobias Halland Johannessen
Uno-X Mobility
s.t.
-6″
3
Tom Pidcock
Pinarello Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team
s.t.
-4″
4
Alex Baudin
EF Education - EasyPost
s.t.
5
Filippo Ganna
Netcompany INEOS
+6"
Stage 10
Mountain
167 km
▲ 3,791 m
✓
1
Tadej Pogacar
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
3:58:08
-10″
2
Remco Evenepoel
Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
+32"
-6″
3
Paul Seixas
Decathlon CMA CGM Team
+34"
-4″
4
Florian Lipowitz
Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
s.t.
5
Juan Ayuso
Lidl - Trek
+38"
Stage 11
Flat
161 km
▲ 1,107 m
✓
1
Soren Waerenskjold
Uno-X Mobility
3:10:06
-10″
2
Olav Kooij
Decathlon CMA CGM Team
s.t.
-6″
3
Jasper Philipsen
Alpecin - Premier Tech
s.t.
-4″
4
Milan Fretin
Cofidis
s.t.
5
Huub Artz
Lotto Intermarché
s.t.
Stage 12
Flat
179 km
▲ 1,412 m
✓
1
Tim Merlier
Soudal Quick-Step
3:38:53
-10″
2
Olav Kooij
Decathlon CMA CGM Team
s.t.
-6″
3
Jasper Philipsen
Alpecin - Premier Tech
s.t.
-4″
4
Biniam Girmay
NSN Cycling Team
s.t.
5
Milan Fretin
Cofidis
s.t.
Stage 13
Hilly
206 km
▲ 2,309 m
✓
1
Mauro Schmid
Team Jayco AlUla
4:06:58
-10″
2
Harold Tejada
XDS Astana Team
s.t.
-6″
3
Tom Pidcock
Pinarello Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team
+2"
-4″
4
Maxim Van Gils
Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
s.t.
5
Brandon Mcnulty
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
s.t.
Stage 14
Mountain
155 km
▲ 3,941 m
✓
1
Tadej Pogacar
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
4:00:07
-10″
2
Isaac Del Toro
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
+38"
-6″
3
Paul Seixas
Decathlon CMA CGM Team
s.t.
-4″
4
Jonas Vingegaard
Team Visma | Lease a Bike
+44"
5
Remco Evenepoel
Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
+48"
Stage 15
Mountain
184 km
▲ 4,098 m
✓
1
Remco Evenepoel
Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
4:23:09
-10″
2
Tadej Pogacar
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
s.t.
-6″
3
Isaac Del Toro
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
+6"
-4″
4
Paul Seixas
Decathlon CMA CGM Team
+58"
5
Florian Lipowitz
Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
s.t.
Stage 16
ITT
26 km
▲ 470 m
✓
1
Remco Evenepoel
Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
0:32:19
2
Tadej Pogacar
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
+28"
3
Mattias Skjelmose
Lidl - Trek
+1'04"
4
Paul Seixas
Decathlon CMA CGM Team
+1'16"
5
Isaac Del Toro
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
+1'21"
Stage 17
Hilly
175 km
▲ 2,362 m
✓
1
Jasper Philipsen
Alpecin - Premier Tech
3:41:13
-10″
2
Mauro Schmid
Team Jayco AlUla
s.t.
-6″
3
Olav Kooij
Decathlon CMA CGM Team
s.t.
-4″
4
Lewis Askey
NSN Cycling Team
s.t.
5
Rick Pluimers
Tudor Pro Cycling Team
s.t.
Stage 18
Mountain
185 km
▲ 3,944 m
✓
1
Richard Carapaz
EF Education - EasyPost
4:26:21
-10″
2
Mauro Schmid
Team Jayco AlUla
+45"
-6″
3
Matteo Jorgenson
Team Visma | Lease a Bike
s.t.
-4″
4
Valentin Paret-Peintre
Soudal Quick-Step
+1'14"
5
Tobias Halland Johannessen
Uno-X Mobility
+1'57"
Stage 19
Mountain
128 km
▲ 3,572 m
✓
1
Tadej Pogacar
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
3:17:57
-10″
2
Lenny Martinez
Bahrain - Victorious
+6"
-6″
3
Richard Carapaz
EF Education - EasyPost
+9"
-4″
4
Sepp Kuss
Team Visma | Lease a Bike
+1'14"
5
Tobias Halland Johannessen
Uno-X Mobility
+2'07"
Stage 20
Mountain
171 km
▲ 5,624 m
✓
1
Richard Carapaz
EF Education - EasyPost
4:59:39
-10″
2
Remco Evenepoel
Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe
+26"
-6″
3
Sepp Kuss
Team Visma | Lease a Bike
+31"
-4″
4
Tadej Pogacar
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
+1'05"
5
Isaac Del Toro
UAE Team Emirates - XRG
s.t.
Stage 21
Flat
133 km
▲ 1,295 m
✓
1
Mathieu Van Der Poel
Alpecin - Premier Tech
—
2
Jasper Philipsen
Alpecin - Premier Tech
s.t.
3
Mads Pedersen
Lidl - Trek
s.t.
4
Max Kanter
XDS Astana Team
s.t.
5
Olav Kooij
Decathlon CMA CGM Team
s.t.
Prediction Accuracy
Market
Predicted
Actual
Result
GC Winner
Jonas Vingegaard (2%)
Tadej Pogacar
✗ Wrong