Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Round 15
Baku City Circuit · Baku, Azerbaijan
· 6.003 km
· 20 turns
· street circuit
Saturday 26 September 2026
Finished
Predictions post-qualifying
Race Winner
Model reasoning
Kimi Antonelli faces challenges in this race. Practice long runs indicate a pace deficit (5.49% off pace). +2.978s off pole pace — likely to be fighting in the midfield. Starting from P16 on the grid, faces a significant overtaking challenge. High lap-time variance in practice (σ=14.437s) could indicate setup struggles.
Podium
Model reasoning
Kimi Antonelli faces challenges in this race. Practice long runs indicate a pace deficit (5.49% off pace). +2.978s off pole pace — likely to be fighting in the midfield. Starting from P16 on the grid, faces a significant overtaking challenge. High lap-time variance in practice (σ=14.437s) could indicate setup struggles.
Top 6
Model reasoning
Kimi Antonelli faces challenges in this race. Practice long runs indicate a pace deficit (5.49% off pace). +2.978s off pole pace — likely to be fighting in the midfield. Starting from P16 on the grid, faces a significant overtaking challenge. High lap-time variance in practice (σ=14.437s) could indicate setup struggles.
Fastest Lap
Model reasoning
Fastest lap probability based on practice pace.
Prediction Accuracy
Race Winner
✗
Predicted: Kimi Antonelli (14%)
— Actual: George Russell
Podium
✗
Predicted: Kimi Antonelli (39%)
— Actual: George Russell
Top 6
✓
Predicted: Kimi Antonelli (71%)
— Actual: George Russell
Fastest Lap
✗
Predicted: Lando Norris (39%)
— Actual: George Russell
Free Practice 1
| P | Driver | Team | Best Lap | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINISHED | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
| FINISHED | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
Free Practice 2
| P | Driver | Team | Best Lap | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINISHED | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
| FINISHED | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
Free Practice 3
| P | Driver | Team | Best Lap | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINISHED | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
| FINISHED | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
Qualifying
| P | Driver | Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | 1:43.615 | 1:43.462 | 1:42.526 |
| 2 | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 1:44.360 | 1:43.780 | 1:43.363 |
| 3 | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 1:45.014 | 1:43.814 | 1:43.364 |
| 4 | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | 1:44.161 | 1:43.880 | 1:43.500 |
| 5 | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | 1:44.571 | 1:44.020 | 1:43.672 |
| 6 | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 1:44.260 | 1:44.037 | 1:43.858 |
| 7 | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 1:44.489 | 1:44.106 | 1:44.047 |
| 8 | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | 1:44.041 | 1:43.706 | 1:44.081 |
| 9 | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | 1:45.104 | 1:44.629 | 1:44.566 |
| 10 | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | 1:45.106 | 1:44.683 | 1:44.963 |
| 11 | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | 1:45.228 | 1:44.775 | — |
| 12 | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | 1:45.535 | 1:44.860 | — |
| 13 | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | 1:45.031 | 1:45.001 | — |
| 14 | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | 1:45.039 | 1:45.016 | — |
| 15 | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | 1:45.381 | 1:45.106 | — |
| 16 | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 1:45.504 | — | — |
| 17 | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | 1:45.799 | — | — |
| 18 | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | 1:45.920 | — | — |
| 19 | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 1:46.593 | — | — |
| 20 | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | 1:46.658 | — | — |
| 21 | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 1:47.337 | — | — |
| 22 | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | 1:48.290 | — | — |
Race
| P | Driver | Team | Grid | Gap | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RUS George Russell FL | Mercedes | 1 | Leader | 0 | 25.0 |
| 2 | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | 8 | +0.196s | +6 | 18.0 |
| 3 | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | 4 | +10.704s | +1 | 15.0 |
| 4 | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 2 | +14.136s | -2 | 12.0 |
| 5 | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 16 | +14.512s | +11 | 10.0 |
| 6 | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 6 | +22.382s | 0 | 8.0 |
| 7 | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | 15 | +31.159s | +8 | 6.0 |
| 8 | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | 13 | +31.189s | +5 | 4.0 |
| 9 | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | 10 | +31.929s | +1 | 2.0 |
| 10 | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | 14 | +32.416s | +4 | 1.0 |
| 11 | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | 18 | +33.231s | +7 | — |
| 12 | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | 11 | +34.013s | -1 | — |
| 13 | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 3 | +36.401s | -10 | — |
| 14 | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | 20 | +41.400s | +6 | — |
| 15 | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | 17 | +44.230s | +2 | — |
| 16 | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | 19 | — | +3 | — |
| 17 | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | 9 | — | -8 | — |
| 18 | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 7 | — | -11 | — |
| 19 | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | 5 | — | -14 | — |
| 20 | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | 12 | — | -8 | — |
| 21 | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 21 | — | 0 | — |
| 22 | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 22 | — | 0 | — |
Race Pace Analysis (FP2/FP3)
| Driver | Compound | Avg Lap | Best Lap | Gap % | Laps | Std Dev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PER Sergio Perez | MEDIUM | 1:50.039 | 1:46.843 | Fastest | 3 | 3.708 |
| COL Franco Colapinto | HARD | 1:54.742 | 1:46.783 | +4.27% | 10 | 11.899 |
| ALB Alexander Albon | SOFT | 1:55.259 | 1:46.076 | +4.74% | 15 | 11.794 |
| HUL Nico Hulkenberg | MEDIUM | 1:55.344 | 1:46.120 | +4.82% | 14 | 12.187 |
| NOR Lando Norris | SOFT | 1:55.845 | 1:44.831 | +5.28% | 26 | 11.011 |
| RUS George Russell | MEDIUM | 1:55.898 | 1:44.537 | +5.32% | 16 | 14.064 |
| SAI Carlos Sainz | MEDIUM | 1:56.184 | 1:46.875 | +5.58% | 21 | 11.394 |
| ANT Kimi Antonelli | MEDIUM | 1:56.428 | 1:45.046 | +5.81% | 9 | 13.221 |
| GAS Pierre Gasly | SOFT | 1:56.596 | 1:44.637 | +5.96% | 8 | 15.419 |
| PER Sergio Perez | SOFT | 1:56.920 | 1:45.760 | +6.25% | 24 | 12.706 |
| PIA Oscar Piastri | SOFT | 1:57.236 | 1:44.746 | +6.54% | 18 | 12.857 |
| LAW Liam Lawson | MEDIUM | 1:57.246 | 1:46.274 | +6.55% | 14 | 12.718 |
| BOT Valtteri Bottas | SOFT | 1:57.477 | 1:46.737 | +6.76% | 24 | 8.792 |
| COL Franco Colapinto | SOFT | 1:57.628 | 1:45.479 | +6.90% | 8 | 15.761 |
| NOR Lando Norris | HARD | 1:58.116 | 1:45.184 | +7.34% | 4 | 12.413 |
| HAD Isack Hadjar | SOFT | 1:58.923 | 1:44.868 | +8.07% | 20 | 15.211 |
| LEC Charles Leclerc | MEDIUM | 1:58.967 | 1:45.812 | +8.11% | 6 | 9.173 |
| HAM Lewis Hamilton | SOFT | 1:58.987 | 1:44.033 | +8.13% | 22 | 14.619 |
| GAS Pierre Gasly | MEDIUM | 1:59.121 | 1:46.116 | +8.25% | 19 | 14.654 |
| PIA Oscar Piastri | HARD | 1:59.200 | 1:45.978 | +8.33% | 3 | 18.001 |
Pit Stops
| Driver | Stop | Lap | Duration | Tyres |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALO Fernando Alonso | 1 | 20 | — | S → |
| SAI Carlos Sainz | 1 | 20 | 20.8s | M → S |
| BOT Valtteri Bottas | 1 | 26 | 23.0s | M → S |
| BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | 1 | 30 | 20.4s | M → S |
| ANT Kimi Antonelli | 1 | 30 | 20.9s | M → S |
| BEA Oliver Bearman | 1 | 30 | 21.3s | S → M |
| COL Franco Colapinto | 1 | 30 | 20.7s | M → S |
| GAS Pierre Gasly | 1 | 30 | 20.8s | M → S |
| PER Sergio Perez | 1 | 30 | 22.4s | M → S |
| LIN Arvid Lindblad | 1 | 30 | 22.0s | M → S |
| NOR Lando Norris | 1 | 30 | 20.8s | M → S |
| OCO Esteban Ocon | 1 | 30 | 21.4s | S → M |
| SAI Carlos Sainz | 2 | 30 | 21.4s | S → S |
| RUS George Russell | 1 | 31 | 20.8s | M → S |
| PIA Oscar Piastri | 1 | 31 | 20.6s | S → M |
| LAW Liam Lawson | 1 | 31 | 21.7s | S → M |
| LEC Charles Leclerc | 1 | 31 | 22.1s | S → M |
| HAD Isack Hadjar | 1 | 31 | 22.0s | S → M |
| HAM Lewis Hamilton | 1 | 31 | 22.2s | S → M |
| VER Max Verstappen | 1 | 31 | 20.7s | M → S |
| HUL Nico Hulkenberg | 1 | 32 | 20.1s | M → S |
| HUL Nico Hulkenberg | 2 | 36 | 15.2s | S → S |
| HAM Lewis Hamilton | 2 | 36 | 16.5s | M → M |
| HAD Isack Hadjar | 2 | 36 | 15.2s | M → M |
| COL Franco Colapinto | 2 | 36 | — | S → |
| BEA Oliver Bearman | 2 | 36 | 16.3s | M → M |
| ANT Kimi Antonelli | 2 | 36 | 16.5s | S → S |
| BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | 2 | 36 | 15.3s | S → S |
| BOT Valtteri Bottas | 2 | 36 | 15.1s | S → S |
| LEC Charles Leclerc | 2 | 36 | 15.5s | M → M |
| LAW Liam Lawson | 2 | 36 | 23.7s | M → S |
| OCO Esteban Ocon | 2 | 36 | 16.2s | M → M |
| LIN Arvid Lindblad | 2 | 36 | 16.0s | S → S |
| PIA Oscar Piastri | 2 | 36 | 15.0s | M → M |
| PER Sergio Perez | 2 | 36 | 15.2s | S → S |
| RUS George Russell | 2 | 36 | 15.0s | S → S |
| VER Max Verstappen | 2 | 36 | 15.1s | S → S |
| SAI Carlos Sainz | 3 | 36 | 15.9s | S → S |