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Bahrain Grand Prix

Round 16
Kuala Lumpur Circuit · Kuala Lumpur, Bahrain · 3.305 km · 16 turns · permanent circuit
Sunday 4 October 2026
Finished

Predictions post-qualifying

Race Winner

VER Max Verstappen
14.0%
NOR Lando Norris
13.3%
ANT Kimi Antonelli
12.5%
HAM Lewis Hamilton
12.5%
LEC Charles Leclerc
10.9%
RUS George Russell
8.4%
HAD Isack Hadjar
4.6%
PIA Oscar Piastri
2.9%
GAS Pierre Gasly
1.8%
LAW Liam Lawson
1.8%
Model reasoning
Max Verstappen has favourable factors working in their favour. Front-row start (P1) gives a significant advantage in clean air and track position. Showed the strongest long-run pace in practice (0.24% off pace). High lap-time variance in practice (σ=0.524s) could indicate setup struggles.

Podium

VER Max Verstappen
40.0%
NOR Lando Norris
37.0%
HAM Lewis Hamilton
36.4%
ANT Kimi Antonelli
36.2%
LEC Charles Leclerc
32.0%
RUS George Russell
26.5%
HAD Isack Hadjar
15.4%
PIA Oscar Piastri
9.8%
GAS Pierre Gasly
6.0%
LAW Liam Lawson
5.7%
Model reasoning
Max Verstappen has favourable factors working in their favour. Front-row start (P1) gives a significant advantage in clean air and track position. Showed the strongest long-run pace in practice (0.24% off pace). High lap-time variance in practice (σ=0.524s) could indicate setup struggles.

Top 6

VER Max Verstappen
69.2%
ANT Kimi Antonelli
67.7%
HAM Lewis Hamilton
67.2%
NOR Lando Norris
66.4%
LEC Charles Leclerc
62.2%
RUS George Russell
55.7%
HAD Isack Hadjar
36.0%
PIA Oscar Piastri
24.0%
LAW Liam Lawson
15.4%
GAS Pierre Gasly
14.2%
Model reasoning
Max Verstappen has favourable factors working in their favour. Front-row start (P1) gives a significant advantage in clean air and track position. Showed the strongest long-run pace in practice (0.24% off pace). High lap-time variance in practice (σ=0.524s) could indicate setup struggles.

Fastest Lap

ANT Kimi Antonelli
39.4%
VER Max Verstappen
23.9%
NOR Lando Norris
14.5%
ALO Fernando Alonso
8.8%
OCO Esteban Ocon
5.3%
BEA Oliver Bearman
3.2%
LEC Charles Leclerc
2.0%
BOT Valtteri Bottas
1.2%
GAS Pierre Gasly
0.7%
BOR Gabriel Bortoleto
0.4%
Model reasoning
Fastest lap probability based on practice pace.

Sprint Winner

VER Max Verstappen
14.0%
NOR Lando Norris
13.3%
ANT Kimi Antonelli
12.5%
HAM Lewis Hamilton
12.5%
LEC Charles Leclerc
10.9%
RUS George Russell
8.4%
HAD Isack Hadjar
4.6%
PIA Oscar Piastri
2.9%
GAS Pierre Gasly
1.8%
LAW Liam Lawson
1.8%
Model reasoning
Max Verstappen has favourable factors working in their favour. Front-row start (P1) gives a significant advantage in clean air and track position. Showed the strongest long-run pace in practice (0.24% off pace). High lap-time variance in practice (σ=0.524s) could indicate setup struggles.

Prediction Accuracy

Race Winner ✓ Predicted: Max Verstappen (14%) — Actual: Max Verstappen
Podium ✓ Predicted: Max Verstappen (40%) — Actual: Kimi Antonelli
Top 6 ✓ Predicted: Max Verstappen (69%) — Actual: Kimi Antonelli
Fastest Lap ✗ Predicted: Kimi Antonelli (39%) — Actual: Max Verstappen
Sprint Winner ✗ Predicted: Max Verstappen (14%) — Actual: ?

Free Practice 1

P Driver Team Best Lap Gap
FINISHED NOR Lando Norris McLaren — —
FINISHED VER Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing — —
FINISHED BOR Gabriel Bortoleto Audi — —
FINISHED HAD Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing — —
FINISHED GAS Pierre Gasly Alpine — —
FINISHED PER Sergio Perez Cadillac — —
FINISHED ANT Kimi Antonelli Mercedes — —
FINISHED ALO Fernando Alonso Aston Martin — —
FINISHED LEC Charles Leclerc Ferrari — —
FINISHED STR Lance Stroll Aston Martin — —
FINISHED ALB Alexander Albon Williams — —
FINISHED HUL Nico Hulkenberg Audi — —
FINISHED LAW Liam Lawson Racing Bulls — —
FINISHED OCO Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team — —
FINISHED LIN Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls — —
FINISHED COL Franco Colapinto Alpine — —
FINISHED HAM Lewis Hamilton Ferrari — —
FINISHED SAI Carlos Sainz Williams — —
FINISHED RUS George Russell Mercedes — —
FINISHED BOT Valtteri Bottas Cadillac — —
FINISHED PIA Oscar Piastri McLaren — —
FINISHED BEA Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team — —

Free Practice 2

P Driver Team Best Lap Gap
FINISHED NOR Lando Norris McLaren — —
FINISHED VER Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing — —
FINISHED BOR Gabriel Bortoleto Audi — —
FINISHED HAD Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing — —
FINISHED GAS Pierre Gasly Alpine — —
FINISHED PER Sergio Perez Cadillac — —
FINISHED ANT Kimi Antonelli Mercedes — —
FINISHED ALO Fernando Alonso Aston Martin — —
FINISHED LEC Charles Leclerc Ferrari — —
FINISHED STR Lance Stroll Aston Martin — —
FINISHED ALB Alexander Albon Williams — —
FINISHED HUL Nico Hulkenberg Audi — —
FINISHED LAW Liam Lawson Racing Bulls — —
FINISHED OCO Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team — —
FINISHED LIN Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls — —
FINISHED COL Franco Colapinto Alpine — —
FINISHED HAM Lewis Hamilton Ferrari — —
FINISHED SAI Carlos Sainz Williams — —
FINISHED RUS George Russell Mercedes — —
FINISHED BOT Valtteri Bottas Cadillac — —
FINISHED PIA Oscar Piastri McLaren — —
FINISHED BEA Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team — —

Free Practice 3

P Driver Team Best Lap Gap
FINISHED NOR Lando Norris McLaren — —
FINISHED VER Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing — —
FINISHED BOR Gabriel Bortoleto Audi — —
FINISHED HAD Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing — —
FINISHED GAS Pierre Gasly Alpine — —
FINISHED PER Sergio Perez Cadillac — —
FINISHED ANT Kimi Antonelli Mercedes — —
FINISHED ALO Fernando Alonso Aston Martin — —
FINISHED LEC Charles Leclerc Ferrari — —
FINISHED STR Lance Stroll Aston Martin — —
FINISHED ALB Alexander Albon Williams — —
FINISHED HUL Nico Hulkenberg Audi — —
FINISHED LAW Liam Lawson Racing Bulls — —
FINISHED OCO Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team — —
FINISHED LIN Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls — —
FINISHED COL Franco Colapinto Alpine — —
FINISHED HAM Lewis Hamilton Ferrari — —
FINISHED SAI Carlos Sainz Williams — —
FINISHED RUS George Russell Mercedes — —
FINISHED BOT Valtteri Bottas Cadillac — —
FINISHED PIA Oscar Piastri McLaren — —
FINISHED BEA Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team — —

Race

P Driver Team Grid Gap +/- Pts
1 VER Max Verstappen FL Red Bull Racing 1 Leader 0 25.0
2 ANT Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 3 +2.307s +1 18.0
3 HAM Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 2 +4.919s -1 15.0
4 LEC Charles Leclerc Ferrari 4 +7.258s 0 12.0
5 HAD Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing 8 +8.571s +3 10.0
6 PIA Oscar Piastri McLaren 6 +9.454s 0 8.0
7 LAW Liam Lawson Racing Bulls 11 +12.753s +4 6.0
8 ALO Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 12 +13.372s +4 4.0
9 NOR Lando Norris McLaren 5 +13.993s -4 2.0
10 LIN Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls 22 +15.928s +12 1.0
11 HUL Nico Hulkenberg Audi 15 +17.404s +4 —
12 STR Lance Stroll Aston Martin 14 +18.052s +2 —
13 COL Franco Colapinto Alpine 21 +18.997s +8 —
14 BEA Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team 16 +22.305s +2 —
15 OCO Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team 17 +22.532s +2 —
16 GAS Pierre Gasly Alpine 9 +23.315s -7 —
17 SAI Carlos Sainz Williams 13 +25.431s -4 —
18 BOR Gabriel Bortoleto Audi 10 +28.233s -8 —
19 PER Sergio Perez Cadillac 20 +29.310s +1 —
20 RUS George Russell Mercedes 7 — -13 —
21 ALB Alexander Albon Williams 18 — -3 —
22 BOT Valtteri Bottas Cadillac 19 — -3 —

Qualifying

P Driver Team Q1 Q2 Q3
1 VER Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing 1:36.477 1:35.696 1:35.130
2 HAM Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 1:36.595 1:36.032 1:35.428
3 HAD Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing 1:36.898 1:36.192 1:35.558
4 ANT Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 1:37.041 1:35.959 1:35.631
5 LEC Charles Leclerc Ferrari 1:36.730 1:35.970 1:35.666
6 NOR Lando Norris McLaren 1:37.092 1:36.173 1:35.757
7 PIA Oscar Piastri McLaren 1:36.852 1:36.020 1:35.762
8 RUS George Russell Mercedes 1:37.264 1:36.245 1:35.871
9 GAS Pierre Gasly Alpine 1:37.174 1:36.410 1:37.210
10 BOR Gabriel Bortoleto Audi 1:37.106 1:36.814 1:37.673
11 LAW Liam Lawson Racing Bulls 1:37.332 1:37.023 —
12 ALO Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 1:37.721 1:37.220 —
13 SAI Carlos Sainz Williams 1:37.651 1:37.527 —
14 STR Lance Stroll Aston Martin 1:37.729 1:37.566 —
15 COL Franco Colapinto Alpine 1:37.179 — —
16 LIN Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls 1:37.883 — —
17 HUL Nico Hulkenberg Audi 1:37.970 — —
18 BEA Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team 1:37.980 — —
19 OCO Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team 1:38.233 — —
20 ALB Alexander Albon Williams 1:38.600 — —
21 BOT Valtteri Bottas Cadillac 1:38.611 — —
22 PER Sergio Perez Cadillac 1:38.933 — —

Race Pace Analysis (FP2/FP3)

Driver Compound Avg Lap Best Lap Gap % Laps Std Dev
LEC Charles Leclerc HARD 1:40.461 1:37.772 Fastest 7 1.652
BOR Gabriel Bortoleto SOFT 1:42.341 1:38.204 +1.87% 9 3.963
NOR Lando Norris SOFT 1:42.860 1:37.665 +2.39% 15 3.044
VER Max Verstappen MEDIUM 1:43.169 1:37.207 +2.70% 17 3.030
ANT Kimi Antonelli MEDIUM 1:43.293 1:38.060 +2.82% 6 2.393
ALO Fernando Alonso SOFT 1:43.303 1:38.223 +2.83% 14 4.022
RUS George Russell SOFT 1:44.702 1:36.912 +4.22% 17 3.399
GAS Pierre Gasly MEDIUM 1:44.741 1:38.588 +4.26% 12 2.791
STR Lance Stroll MEDIUM 1:44.957 1:41.929 +4.48% 4 1.761
PIA Oscar Piastri SOFT 1:44.970 1:37.366 +4.49% 14 9.184
STR Lance Stroll SOFT 1:45.025 1:38.811 +4.54% 11 6.526
ANT Kimi Antonelli SOFT 1:45.058 1:36.302 +4.58% 12 9.970
OCO Esteban Ocon SOFT 1:45.070 1:38.252 +4.59% 17 3.479
GAS Pierre Gasly SOFT 1:45.357 1:38.241 +4.87% 11 14.100
BOR Gabriel Bortoleto MEDIUM 1:45.643 1:39.702 +5.16% 10 2.945
LEC Charles Leclerc SOFT 1:45.709 1:37.016 +5.22% 13 9.795
LIN Arvid Lindblad MEDIUM 1:45.746 1:38.880 +5.26% 13 2.163
COL Franco Colapinto MEDIUM 1:45.796 1:43.391 +5.31% 14 1.069
BEA Oliver Bearman MEDIUM 1:45.894 1:40.473 +5.41% 10 2.813
COL Franco Colapinto SOFT 1:46.146 1:37.920 +5.66% 17 10.430

Pit Stops

Driver Stop Lap Duration Tyres
PER Sergio Perez 1 1 38.2s S → I
PIA Oscar Piastri 1 2 81.5s M → I
STR Lance Stroll 1 2 60.3s M → I
BOR Gabriel Bortoleto 1 2 74.0s S → I
HUL Nico Hulkenberg 1 2 61.4s S → I
PER Sergio Perez 2 2 41.7s I → I
LEC Charles Leclerc 1 3 38.1s S → I
HUL Nico Hulkenberg 2 8 27.6s I → S
COL Franco Colapinto 1 9 27.8s S → M
HAD Isack Hadjar 1 9 28.1s I → S
LAW Liam Lawson 1 9 28.6s I → H
GAS Pierre Gasly 1 9 28.0s S → M
ALB Alexander Albon 1 9 32.4s I → S
ALO Fernando Alonso 1 9 28.3s M → H
ANT Kimi Antonelli 1 9 27.6s I → M
LIN Arvid Lindblad 1 9 28.4s I → H
NOR Lando Norris 1 9 30.9s M → H
OCO Esteban Ocon 1 9 28.7s I → S
RUS George Russell 1 9 28.7s I → M
SAI Carlos Sainz 1 9 32.0s I → S
VER Max Verstappen 1 9 27.5s I → S
STR Lance Stroll 2 9 27.9s I → H
PIA Oscar Piastri 2 9 29.1s I → H
BOR Gabriel Bortoleto 2 9 27.8s I → S
LEC Charles Leclerc 2 9 28.6s I → S
PER Sergio Perez 3 9 29.7s I → M
BEA Oliver Bearman 1 10 28.6s S → M
BOR Gabriel Bortoleto 3 15 36.7s S → H
ALB Alexander Albon 2 16 27.5s S → H
PER Sergio Perez 4 18 28.7s M → H
PER Sergio Perez 5 21 29.4s H → H
BEA Oliver Bearman 2 24 29.0s M → H
GAS Pierre Gasly 2 25 27.8s M → H
SAI Carlos Sainz 2 26 28.2s S → H
LIN Arvid Lindblad 2 28 29.3s H → H
STR Lance Stroll 3 28 28.3s H → H
LEC Charles Leclerc 3 28 27.9s S → N
OCO Esteban Ocon 2 29 29.1s S → H
ALB Alexander Albon 3 29 27.8s H → S
LAW Liam Lawson 2 30 28.0s H → H
HAM Lewis Hamilton 1 31 27.8s S → M
HAD Isack Hadjar 2 31 28.4s S → N
COL Franco Colapinto 2 31 27.4s M → H
ALO Fernando Alonso 2 31 27.5s H → N
RUS George Russell 2 32 27.6s M → S
HUL Nico Hulkenberg 3 32 28.4s S → S
ANT Kimi Antonelli 2 33 27.4s M → S
VER Max Verstappen 2 33 27.8s S → S
PIA Oscar Piastri 3 33 28.2s H → H
NOR Lando Norris 2 34 28.2s H → S
BOR Gabriel Bortoleto 4 34 51.7s H → S
GAS Pierre Gasly 3 37 27.7s H → S
BEA Oliver Bearman 3 38 28.1s H → N
PER Sergio Perez 6 39 31.4s H → M
OCO Esteban Ocon 3 41 28.3s H → S
SAI Carlos Sainz 3 42 39.7s H → S
COL Franco Colapinto 3 42 28.2s H → M
HAM Lewis Hamilton 2 43 28.1s M → S
VER Max Verstappen 3 43 27.5s S → S
LIN Arvid Lindblad 3 43 28.0s H → S
STR Lance Stroll 4 43 27.5s H → S
LEC Charles Leclerc 4 43 28.1s N → S
HAD Isack Hadjar 3 44 27.3s N → S
ANT Kimi Antonelli 3 44 27.1s S → S
RUS George Russell 3 44 27.6s S → S
BOR Gabriel Bortoleto 5 44 27.7s S → S
PER Sergio Perez 7 44 28.8s M → S
NOR Lando Norris 3 45 27.8s S → S
ALO Fernando Alonso 3 45 27.7s N → S
LAW Liam Lawson 3 45 29.8s H → S
HUL Nico Hulkenberg 4 45 28.1s S → S
GAS Pierre Gasly 4 45 28.4s S → S
PIA Oscar Piastri 4 45 27.4s H → M