Belgian Grand Prix
Round 10
Spa-Francorchamps Circuit · Spa-Francorchamps, Belgium
· 7.004 km
· 19 turns
· permanent circuit
Sunday 19 July 2026
Finished
Predictions post-qualifying
Race Winner
Model reasoning
Lewis Hamilton is a strong contender for the win (18% probability). Practice long runs indicate a pace deficit (5.18% off pace). A P6 grid slot makes a podium finish difficult without safety car interventions. Inconsistent practice pace (σ=8.814s) raises concerns about tyre management. +0.534s off pole pace — likely to be fighting in the midfield.
Podium
Model reasoning
Lewis Hamilton faces challenges in this race. Practice long runs indicate a pace deficit (5.18% off pace). A P6 grid slot makes a podium finish difficult without safety car interventions. Inconsistent practice pace (σ=8.814s) raises concerns about tyre management. +0.534s off pole pace — likely to be fighting in the midfield.
Top 6
Model reasoning
Lewis Hamilton faces challenges in this race. Practice long runs indicate a pace deficit (5.18% off pace). A P6 grid slot makes a podium finish difficult without safety car interventions. Inconsistent practice pace (σ=8.814s) raises concerns about tyre management. +0.534s off pole pace — likely to be fighting in the midfield.
Prediction Accuracy
Race Winner
✗
Predicted: Lewis Hamilton (18%)
— Actual: Kimi Antonelli
Podium
✗
Predicted: Lewis Hamilton (47%)
— Actual: Kimi Antonelli
Top 6
✓
Predicted: Lewis Hamilton (76%)
— Actual: Kimi Antonelli
Free Practice 1
| P | Driver | Team | Best Lap | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINISHED | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
| FINISHED | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
Free Practice 2
| P | Driver | Team | Best Lap | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINISHED | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
| FINISHED | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
Free Practice 3
| P | Driver | Team | Best Lap | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINISHED | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
| FINISHED | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
Qualifying
| P | Driver | Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 1:46.304 | 1:45.142 | 1:44.361 |
| 2 | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | 1:45.930 | 1:45.589 | 1:44.678 |
| 3 | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | 1:45.865 | 1:45.454 | 1:44.801 |
| 4 | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | 1:46.185 | 1:45.689 | 1:44.869 |
| 5 | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 1:46.278 | 1:45.397 | 1:44.893 |
| 6 | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 1:46.124 | 1:45.543 | 1:44.895 |
| 7 | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 1:46.433 | 1:45.671 | 1:45.016 |
| 8 | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | 1:46.191 | 1:45.629 | 1:45.143 |
| 9 | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | 1:46.609 | 1:46.082 | 1:45.628 |
| 10 | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | 1:46.062 | 1:45.823 | — |
| 11 | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | 1:46.501 | 1:46.120 | — |
| 12 | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 1:46.679 | 1:46.331 | — |
| 13 | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | 1:46.795 | 1:46.392 | — |
| 14 | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | 1:46.893 | 1:46.671 | — |
| 15 | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | 1:47.080 | 1:46.777 | — |
| 16 | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | 1:47.113 | 1:46.779 | — |
| 17 | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | 1:47.120 | — | — |
| 18 | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | 1:47.801 | — | — |
| 19 | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | 1:47.823 | — | — |
| 20 | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | 1:47.971 | — | — |
| 21 | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 1:50.002 | — | — |
| 22 | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 1:50.177 | — | — |
Race
| P | Driver | Team | Grid | Gap | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 1 | Leader | 0 | 25.0 |
| 2 | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 4 | +1.952s | +2 | 18.0 |
| 3 | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | 2 | +11.586s | -1 | 15.0 |
| 4 | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 5 | +17.245s | +1 | 12.0 |
| 5 | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 6 | +18.988s | +1 | 10.0 |
| 6 | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | 21 | +23.307s | +15 | 8.0 |
| 7 | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | 13 | +24.014s | +6 | 6.0 |
| 8 | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | 8 | +49.140s | 0 | 4.0 |
| 9 | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | 7 | +50.406s | -2 | 2.0 |
| 10 | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | 11 | +76.037s | +1 | 1.0 |
| 11 | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 10 | +76.991s | -1 | — |
| 12 | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | 9 | +77.523s | -3 | — |
| 13 | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | 12 | +78.348s | -1 | — |
| 14 | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | 14 | +94.465s | 0 | — |
| 15 | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | 15 | +104.684s | 0 | — |
| 16 | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | 19 | +105.856s | +3 | — |
| 17 | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | 16 | +110.925s | -1 | — |
| 18 | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | 17 | +60.979s | -1 | — |
| 19 | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 22 | +20.848s | +3 | — |
| 20 | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 20 | — | 0 | — |
| 21 | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | 18 | — | -3 | — |
| 22 | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | 3 | — | -19 | — |
Race Pace Analysis (FP2/FP3)
| Driver | Compound | Avg Lap | Best Lap | Gap % | Laps | Std Dev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOR Lando Norris | SOFT | 1:46.571 | 1:46.129 | Fastest | 3 | 0.621 |
| COL Franco Colapinto | SOFT | 1:47.690 | 1:47.147 | +1.05% | 4 | 0.317 |
| GAS Pierre Gasly | SOFT | 1:47.786 | 1:47.360 | +1.14% | 3 | 0.304 |
| PIA Oscar Piastri | SOFT | 1:48.636 | 1:46.785 | +1.94% | 10 | 1.491 |
| LEC Charles Leclerc | SOFT | 1:49.318 | 1:46.750 | +2.58% | 8 | 5.398 |
| HUL Nico Hulkenberg | SOFT | 1:49.453 | 1:46.924 | +2.70% | 9 | 1.719 |
| ANT Kimi Antonelli | MEDIUM | 1:50.001 | 1:46.911 | +3.22% | 6 | 2.138 |
| RUS George Russell | MEDIUM | 1:50.008 | 1:47.981 | +3.23% | 6 | 1.981 |
| NOR Lando Norris | MEDIUM | 1:50.047 | 1:47.376 | +3.26% | 13 | 2.777 |
| VER Max Verstappen | MEDIUM | 1:50.785 | 1:46.942 | +3.95% | 9 | 2.079 |
| HAM Lewis Hamilton | SOFT | 1:51.038 | 1:46.382 | +4.19% | 11 | 8.211 |
| ALB Alexander Albon | SOFT | 1:51.272 | 1:47.990 | +4.41% | 11 | 4.238 |
| STR Lance Stroll | SOFT | 1:51.523 | 1:50.631 | +4.65% | 7 | 0.759 |
| SAI Carlos Sainz | MEDIUM | 1:51.692 | 1:49.666 | +4.81% | 5 | 1.999 |
| LIN Arvid Lindblad | SOFT | 1:51.855 | 1:47.176 | +4.96% | 13 | 10.180 |
| BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | SOFT | 1:52.766 | 1:47.049 | +5.81% | 8 | 8.709 |
| ALO Fernando Alonso | MEDIUM | 1:53.133 | 1:52.755 | +6.16% | 3 | 0.416 |
| GAS Pierre Gasly | MEDIUM | 1:53.177 | 1:48.085 | +6.20% | 13 | 8.840 |
| PER Sergio Perez | MEDIUM | 1:53.189 | 1:50.035 | +6.21% | 6 | 2.307 |
| HAD Isack Hadjar | MEDIUM | 1:53.228 | 1:46.922 | +6.25% | 18 | 8.456 |
Pit Stops
| Driver | Stop | Lap | Duration | Tyres |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEA Oliver Bearman | 1 | 1 | 26.5s | M → H |
| BOT Valtteri Bottas | 1 | 1 | 30.4s | S → H |
| HAD Isack Hadjar | 1 | 1 | 24.2s | H → M |
| OCO Esteban Ocon | 1 | 1 | 33.8s | M → H |
| PER Sergio Perez | 1 | 1 | 25.6s | H → S |
| HAD Isack Hadjar | 2 | 2 | 22.9s | M → H |
| PER Sergio Perez | 2 | 12 | 27.5s | S → H |
| PER Sergio Perez | 3 | 13 | — | H → |
| SAI Carlos Sainz | 1 | 14 | 34.9s | S → H |
| GAS Pierre Gasly | 1 | 14 | 24.0s | M → H |
| COL Franco Colapinto | 1 | 15 | 24.1s | M → H |
| LAW Liam Lawson | 1 | 15 | 23.9s | M → H |
| LIN Arvid Lindblad | 1 | 16 | 24.9s | M → H |
| OCO Esteban Ocon | 2 | 16 | 24.1s | H → H |
| STR Lance Stroll | 1 | 17 | 31.6s | H → S |
| VER Max Verstappen | 1 | 17 | 23.2s | M → H |
| ANT Kimi Antonelli | 1 | 18 | 23.1s | M → S |
| ALB Alexander Albon | 1 | 18 | 22.6s | M → H |
| ALO Fernando Alonso | 1 | 19 | 23.1s | H → S |
| BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | 1 | 20 | 23.1s | M → H |
| LEC Charles Leclerc | 1 | 20 | 23.0s | M → H |
| HAM Lewis Hamilton | 1 | 20 | 32.4s | M → H |
| HUL Nico Hulkenberg | 1 | 20 | 26.1s | M → H |
| PIA Oscar Piastri | 1 | 20 | 23.2s | M → H |
| BEA Oliver Bearman | 2 | 20 | 29.1s | H → H |
| HAD Isack Hadjar | 3 | 20 | 24.7s | H → H |
| STR Lance Stroll | 2 | 25 | — | S → |
| NOR Lando Norris | 1 | 30 | 28.3s | H → M |
| ALO Fernando Alonso | 2 | 31 | 24.7s | S → H |
| BOT Valtteri Bottas | 2 | 32 | 25.9s | H → S |