Hungarian Grand Prix
Round 11
Hungaroring · Budapest, Hungary
· 4.381 km
· 14 turns
· permanent circuit
Sunday 26 July 2026
Finished
Predictions post-qualifying
Race Winner
Model reasoning
Lewis Hamilton is a strong contender for the win (17% probability). Front-row start (P2) gives a significant advantage in clean air and track position. Practice long runs indicate a pace deficit (1.54% off pace). Very close to pole in qualifying (+0.012s), showing strong single-lap pace. Inconsistent practice pace (σ=13.076s) raises concerns about tyre management.
Podium
Model reasoning
Lewis Hamilton has favourable factors working in their favour. Front-row start (P2) gives a significant advantage in clean air and track position. Practice long runs indicate a pace deficit (1.54% off pace). Very close to pole in qualifying (+0.012s), showing strong single-lap pace. Inconsistent practice pace (σ=13.076s) raises concerns about tyre management.
Top 6
Model reasoning
Lewis Hamilton has favourable factors working in their favour. Front-row start (P2) gives a significant advantage in clean air and track position. Practice long runs indicate a pace deficit (1.54% off pace). Very close to pole in qualifying (+0.012s), showing strong single-lap pace. Inconsistent practice pace (σ=13.076s) raises concerns about tyre management.
Prediction Accuracy
Race Winner
✗
Predicted: Lewis Hamilton (17%)
— Actual: Lando Norris
Podium
✗
Predicted: Lewis Hamilton (47%)
— Actual: Kimi Antonelli
Top 6
✓
Predicted: Lewis Hamilton (76%)
— Actual: Kimi Antonelli
Free Practice 1
| P | Driver | Team | Best Lap | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINISHED | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
| FINISHED | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | — | — |
Free Practice 2
| P | Driver | Team | Best Lap | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINISHED | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
| FINISHED | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
Free Practice 3
| P | Driver | Team | Best Lap | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINISHED | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
| FINISHED | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
Qualifying
| P | Driver | Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | 1:18.277 | 1:17.456 | 1:17.207 |
| 2 | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 1:18.730 | 1:17.803 | 1:17.219 |
| 3 | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 1:18.984 | 1:17.626 | 1:17.445 |
| 4 | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 1:18.726 | 1:18.393 | 1:17.479 |
| 5 | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 1:18.891 | 1:17.928 | 1:17.684 |
| 6 | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | 1:18.656 | 1:18.249 | 1:17.725 |
| 7 | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | 1:18.856 | 1:18.445 | 1:17.760 |
| 8 | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | 1:18.754 | 1:17.872 | 1:17.856 |
| 9 | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | 1:19.233 | 1:18.360 | 1:18.281 |
| 10 | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | 1:18.796 | 1:18.639 | 1:18.686 |
| 11 | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | 1:19.161 | 1:18.765 | — |
| 12 | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 1:19.741 | 1:18.844 | — |
| 13 | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | 1:19.771 | 1:19.027 | — |
| 14 | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | 1:19.069 | 1:19.105 | — |
| 15 | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | 1:20.010 | 1:19.734 | — |
| 16 | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 1:20.126 | 1:19.808 | — |
| 17 | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | 1:20.233 | — | — |
| 18 | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | 1:20.621 | — | — |
| 19 | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | 1:20.658 | — | — |
| 20 | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 1:20.659 | — | — |
| 21 | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | 1:20.886 | — | — |
| 22 | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | 1:21.322 | — | — |
Race
| P | Driver | Team | Grid | Gap | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | 1 | Leader | 0 | 25.0 |
| 2 | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | 4 | +15.080s | +2 | 18.0 |
| 3 | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 7 | +18.728s | +4 | 15.0 |
| 4 | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 2 | +23.840s | -2 | 12.0 |
| 5 | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 5 | +24.540s | 0 | 10.0 |
| 6 | HAD Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | 8 | +55.488s | +2 | 8.0 |
| 7 | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | 6 | +57.503s | -1 | 6.0 |
| 8 | LAW Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | 11 | +28.033s | +3 | 4.0 |
| 9 | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | 10 | +30.382s | +1 | 2.0 |
| 10 | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | 9 | +51.050s | -1 | 1.0 |
| 11 | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | 14 | +52.028s | +3 | — |
| 12 | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 12 | +53.429s | 0 | — |
| 13 | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 20 | +63.828s | +7 | — |
| 14 | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 16 | +66.052s | +2 | — |
| 15 | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | 13 | +3.876s | -2 | — |
| 16 | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | 15 | +12.859s | -1 | — |
| 17 | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | 19 | +52.729s | +2 | — |
| 18 | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | 18 | +52.973s | 0 | — |
| 19 | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | 17 | +57.198s | -2 | — |
| 20 | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 3 | — | -17 | — |
| 21 | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | 22 | — | +1 | — |
| 22 | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | 21 | — | -1 | — |
Race Pace Analysis (FP2/FP3)
| Driver | Compound | Avg Lap | Best Lap | Gap % | Laps | Std Dev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOT Valtteri Bottas | SOFT | 1:25.664 | 1:21.299 | Fastest | 7 | 9.158 |
| HUL Nico Hulkenberg | MEDIUM | 1:25.730 | 1:20.392 | +0.08% | 9 | 8.103 |
| HAM Lewis Hamilton | SOFT | 1:27.636 | 1:18.056 | +2.30% | 15 | 12.267 |
| RUS George Russell | MEDIUM | 1:27.683 | 1:20.412 | +2.36% | 17 | 13.364 |
| ANT Kimi Antonelli | MEDIUM | 1:27.949 | 1:20.693 | +2.67% | 6 | 13.231 |
| VER Max Verstappen | MEDIUM | 1:28.112 | 1:20.173 | +2.86% | 10 | 12.368 |
| NOR Lando Norris | MEDIUM | 1:28.989 | 1:20.897 | +3.88% | 15 | 14.407 |
| BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | SOFT | 1:29.288 | 1:19.338 | +4.23% | 6 | 12.803 |
| HUL Nico Hulkenberg | SOFT | 1:29.474 | 1:19.160 | +4.45% | 12 | 14.902 |
| BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | MEDIUM | 1:29.979 | 1:20.573 | +5.04% | 6 | 8.892 |
| BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | HARD | 1:30.356 | 1:21.632 | +5.48% | 11 | 12.408 |
| LEC Charles Leclerc | SOFT | 1:30.653 | 1:18.291 | +5.82% | 27 | 15.332 |
| PIA Oscar Piastri | MEDIUM | 1:30.678 | 1:20.798 | +5.85% | 15 | 10.598 |
| LAW Liam Lawson | MEDIUM | 1:30.867 | 1:20.035 | +6.07% | 9 | 14.709 |
| COL Franco Colapinto | SOFT | 1:31.064 | 1:20.055 | +6.30% | 20 | 16.748 |
| LIN Arvid Lindblad | SOFT | 1:32.117 | 1:19.895 | +7.53% | 6 | 20.668 |
| SAI Carlos Sainz | HARD | 1:32.246 | 1:22.934 | +7.68% | 20 | 13.395 |
| STR Lance Stroll | SOFT | 1:32.639 | 1:20.933 | +8.14% | 6 | 11.961 |
| LIN Arvid Lindblad | HARD | 1:33.094 | 1:21.372 | +8.67% | 18 | 13.215 |
| LAW Liam Lawson | HARD | 1:33.156 | 1:21.182 | +8.75% | 17 | 14.162 |
Pit Stops
| Driver | Stop | Lap | Duration | Tyres |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STR Lance Stroll | 1 | 8 | 21.8s | S → M |
| HAM Lewis Hamilton | 1 | 13 | 21.7s | S → H |
| BOT Valtteri Bottas | 1 | 14 | — | M → |
| VER Max Verstappen | 1 | 14 | 21.6s | M → H |
| COL Franco Colapinto | 1 | 15 | 23.0s | M → H |
| GAS Pierre Gasly | 1 | 16 | 21.4s | M → H |
| LEC Charles Leclerc | 1 | 16 | 21.9s | S → H |
| PIA Oscar Piastri | 1 | 16 | 21.7s | M → H |
| NOR Lando Norris | 1 | 17 | 22.1s | M → H |
| OCO Esteban Ocon | 1 | 17 | 22.5s | M → H |
| SAI Carlos Sainz | 1 | 18 | 21.6s | S → M |
| HUL Nico Hulkenberg | 1 | 19 | 21.4s | M → H |
| HAD Isack Hadjar | 1 | 19 | 21.9s | M → H |
| LIN Arvid Lindblad | 1 | 20 | 21.4s | M → H |
| LAW Liam Lawson | 1 | 21 | 22.2s | M → H |
| PER Sergio Perez | 1 | 21 | 23.2s | M → N |
| ANT Kimi Antonelli | 1 | 22 | 21.4s | M → H |
| BEA Oliver Bearman | 1 | 22 | 22.6s | M → H |
| ALB Alexander Albon | 1 | 26 | 22.1s | M → H |
| RUS George Russell | 1 | 27 | 22.3s | M → H |
| BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | 1 | 29 | 21.8s | S → H |
| HAM Lewis Hamilton | 2 | 30 | 21.7s | H → H |
| PIA Oscar Piastri | 2 | 33 | 21.7s | H → H |
| ALO Fernando Alonso | 1 | 34 | 22.2s | S → M |
| OCO Esteban Ocon | 2 | 35 | 22.4s | H → H |
| LEC Charles Leclerc | 2 | 36 | 21.7s | H → H |
| COL Franco Colapinto | 2 | 37 | 22.3s | H → H |
| STR Lance Stroll | 2 | 37 | 24.3s | M → S |
| GAS Pierre Gasly | 2 | 39 | 21.6s | H → H |
| HUL Nico Hulkenberg | 2 | 39 | 22.2s | H → S |
| NOR Lando Norris | 2 | 39 | 22.0s | H → H |
| VER Max Verstappen | 2 | 41 | 22.0s | H → S |
| LAW Liam Lawson | 2 | 42 | 21.7s | H → S |
| HAD Isack Hadjar | 2 | 42 | 22.3s | H → H |
| BEA Oliver Bearman | 2 | 42 | 22.2s | H → H |
| SAI Carlos Sainz | 2 | 43 | 28.6s | M → S |
| PER Sergio Perez | 2 | 46 | 24.3s | N → S |
| PER Sergio Perez | 3 | 48 | — | S → |
| ANT Kimi Antonelli | 2 | 53 | 21.2s | H → H |
| ALB Alexander Albon | 2 | 54 | 22.8s | H → S |
| RUS George Russell | 2 | 54 | 22.0s | H → H |
| SAI Carlos Sainz | 3 | 54 | 22.1s | S → S |
| ALO Fernando Alonso | 2 | 55 | 22.6s | M → S |
| GAS Pierre Gasly | 3 | 55 | 21.8s | H → S |
| HAM Lewis Hamilton | 3 | 56 | 22.4s | H → S |
| NOR Lando Norris | 3 | 56 | 21.9s | H → S |
| LEC Charles Leclerc | 3 | 56 | 21.8s | H → S |