Italian Grand Prix
Round 13
Autodromo Nazionale di Monza · Monza, Italy
· 5.793 km
· 11 turns
· permanent circuit
Sunday 6 September 2026
Finished
Predictions post-qualifying
Race Winner
Model reasoning
Lewis Hamilton is a strong contender for the win (16% probability). Practice long runs indicate a pace deficit (24.19% off pace). Front-row start (P5) gives a significant advantage in clean air and track position. Very close to pole in qualifying (+0.225s), showing strong single-lap pace. Inconsistent practice pace (σ=22.963s) raises concerns about tyre management.
Podium
Model reasoning
Lewis Hamilton faces challenges in this race. Practice long runs indicate a pace deficit (24.19% off pace). Front-row start (P5) gives a significant advantage in clean air and track position. Very close to pole in qualifying (+0.225s), showing strong single-lap pace. Inconsistent practice pace (σ=22.963s) raises concerns about tyre management.
Top 6
Model reasoning
Lewis Hamilton faces challenges in this race. Practice long runs indicate a pace deficit (24.19% off pace). Front-row start (P5) gives a significant advantage in clean air and track position. Very close to pole in qualifying (+0.225s), showing strong single-lap pace. Inconsistent practice pace (σ=22.963s) raises concerns about tyre management.
Fastest Lap
Model reasoning
Fastest lap probability based on practice pace.
Prediction Accuracy
Race Winner
✗
Predicted: Lewis Hamilton (16%)
— Actual: Kimi Antonelli
Podium
✗
Predicted: Lewis Hamilton (46%)
— Actual: George Russell
Top 6
✓
Predicted: Lewis Hamilton (78%)
— Actual: George Russell
Fastest Lap
✗
Predicted: Nico Hulkenberg (39%)
— Actual: Kimi Antonelli
Free Practice 1
| P | Driver | Team | Best Lap | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINISHED | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | LAW Liam Lawson | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
| FINISHED | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
Free Practice 2
| P | Driver | Team | Best Lap | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINISHED | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | LAW Liam Lawson | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
| FINISHED | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
Free Practice 3
| P | Driver | Team | Best Lap | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINISHED | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | — | — |
| FINISHED | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | — | — |
| FINISHED | LAW Liam Lawson | Red Bull Racing | — | — |
| FINISHED | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
| FINISHED | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | — | — |
| FINISHED | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | — | — |
| FINISHED | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | — | — |
| FINISHED | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | — | — |
| FINISHED | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | — | — |
| FINISHED | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | — | — |
| FINISHED | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | — | — |
| FINISHED | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | — | — |
Qualifying
| P | Driver | Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 1:22.612 | 1:22.077 | 1:21.786 |
| 2 | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | 1:22.779 | 1:22.161 | 1:21.846 |
| 3 | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 1:22.924 | 1:22.017 | 1:21.966 |
| 4 | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 1:22.902 | 1:22.509 | 1:22.004 |
| 5 | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 1:22.847 | 1:22.516 | 1:22.011 |
| 6 | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | 1:22.631 | 1:22.188 | 1:22.070 |
| 7 | ANT Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 1:22.758 | 1:21.882 | 1:22.093 |
| 8 | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | 1:22.662 | 1:22.400 | 1:22.220 |
| 9 | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | 1:22.659 | 1:22.067 | 1:22.256 |
| 10 | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | 1:22.727 | 1:22.345 | 1:22.286 |
| 11 | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | 1:22.946 | 1:22.517 | — |
| 12 | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | 1:22.906 | 1:22.756 | — |
| 13 | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | 1:23.440 | 1:22.779 | — |
| 14 | LAW Liam Lawson | Red Bull Racing | 1:22.989 | 1:22.821 | — |
| 15 | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | 1:23.616 | 1:23.453 | — |
| 16 | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | 1:23.466 | 1:23.454 | — |
| 18 | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | 1:24.356 | — | — |
| 19 | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | 1:24.364 | — | — |
| 20 | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | 1:24.595 | — | — |
| 21 | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 1:25.150 | — | — |
| 22 | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 1:25.222 | — | — |
Race
| P | Driver | Team | Grid | Gap | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ANT Kimi Antonelli FL | Mercedes | 19 | Leader | +18 | 25.0 |
| 2 | RUS George Russell | Mercedes | 2 | +3.857s | 0 | 18.0 |
| 3 | VER Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | 5 | +14.718s | +2 | 15.0 |
| 4 | NOR Lando Norris | McLaren | 8 | +19.056s | +4 | 12.0 |
| 5 | PIA Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 6 | +19.253s | +1 | 10.0 |
| 6 | HAM Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 4 | +24.655s | -2 | 8.0 |
| 7 | GAS Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 1 | +27.351s | -6 | 6.0 |
| 8 | LIN Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | 9 | +45.136s | +1 | 4.0 |
| 9 | COL Franco Colapinto | Alpine | 7 | +47.353s | -2 | 2.0 |
| 11 | BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | 10 | +65.187s | -1 | — |
| 12 | HUL Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | 12 | +66.187s | 0 | — |
| 13 | SAI Carlos Sainz | Williams | 13 | +74.117s | 0 | — |
| 14 | LAW Liam Lawson | Red Bull Racing | 22 | +75.609s | +8 | — |
| 15 | BEA Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | 11 | +78.958s | -4 | — |
| 16 | OCO Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | 14 | +6.591s | -2 | — |
| 17 | ALB Alexander Albon | Williams | 20 | +20.268s | +3 | — |
| 18 | PER Sergio Perez | Cadillac | 17 | +73.372s | -1 | — |
| 19 | BOT Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | 16 | +12.880s | -3 | — |
| 20 | STR Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 18 | — | -2 | — |
| 21 | ALO Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 21 | — | 0 | — |
| 22 | LEC Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 3 | — | -19 | — |
Race Pace Analysis (FP2/FP3)
| Driver | Compound | Avg Lap | Best Lap | Gap % | Laps | Std Dev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | MEDIUM | 1:23.921 | 1:23.561 | Fastest | 3 | 0.306 |
| ANT Kimi Antonelli | HARD | 1:28.536 | 1:23.417 | +5.50% | 19 | 10.770 |
| HUL Nico Hulkenberg | SOFT | 1:28.558 | 1:23.126 | +5.53% | 13 | 7.897 |
| RUS George Russell | HARD | 1:30.134 | 1:23.202 | +7.40% | 14 | 16.514 |
| LAW Liam Lawson | HARD | 1:30.318 | 1:25.582 | +7.62% | 13 | 14.739 |
| LEC Charles Leclerc | MEDIUM | 1:30.923 | 1:23.472 | +8.34% | 4 | 12.512 |
| COL Franco Colapinto | SOFT | 1:31.867 | 1:23.101 | +9.47% | 12 | 12.940 |
| LEC Charles Leclerc | SOFT | 1:32.140 | 1:22.679 | +9.79% | 23 | 13.135 |
| GAS Pierre Gasly | MEDIUM | 1:32.482 | 1:23.416 | +10.20% | 13 | 15.834 |
| LIN Arvid Lindblad | SOFT | 1:32.556 | 1:22.724 | +10.29% | 13 | 15.832 |
| OCO Esteban Ocon | SOFT | 1:32.685 | 1:24.020 | +10.44% | 15 | 12.316 |
| LIN Arvid Lindblad | MEDIUM | 1:32.970 | 1:23.468 | +10.78% | 16 | 14.432 |
| ALB Alexander Albon | SOFT | 1:33.030 | 1:23.853 | +10.85% | 26 | 13.640 |
| BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | HARD | 1:33.233 | 1:23.776 | +11.10% | 8 | 20.059 |
| COL Franco Colapinto | MEDIUM | 1:33.243 | 1:23.766 | +11.11% | 12 | 17.902 |
| NOR Lando Norris | MEDIUM | 1:34.826 | 1:23.431 | +12.99% | 5 | 15.039 |
| NOR Lando Norris | HARD | 1:34.855 | 1:23.796 | +13.03% | 11 | 18.942 |
| OCO Esteban Ocon | MEDIUM | 1:35.599 | 1:25.091 | +13.92% | 11 | 19.341 |
| BOT Valtteri Bottas | MEDIUM | 1:35.798 | 1:26.107 | +14.15% | 4 | 16.619 |
| BEA Oliver Bearman | MEDIUM | 1:35.913 | 1:24.663 | +14.29% | 20 | 16.513 |
Pit Stops
| Driver | Stop | Lap | Duration | Tyres |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEC Charles Leclerc | 1 | 2 | — | S → |
| LIN Arvid Lindblad | 1 | 3 | 1842.5s | M → H |
| NOR Lando Norris | 1 | 3 | 1840.6s | M → H |
| OCO Esteban Ocon | 1 | 3 | 1842.5s | S → H |
| PIA Oscar Piastri | 1 | 3 | 1840.5s | M → H |
| RUS George Russell | 1 | 3 | 1846.2s | M → H |
| SAI Carlos Sainz | 1 | 3 | 1842.5s | S → H |
| PER Sergio Perez | 1 | 3 | 1842.5s | S → S |
| STR Lance Stroll | 1 | 3 | 1841.7s | S → H |
| VER Max Verstappen | 1 | 3 | 1843.9s | S → M |
| ALB Alexander Albon | 1 | 3 | 1842.3s | M → H |
| ALO Fernando Alonso | 1 | 3 | 1839.1s | H → S |
| BEA Oliver Bearman | 1 | 3 | 1843.3s | S → H |
| BOR Gabriel Bortoleto | 1 | 3 | 1842.7s | S → M |
| BOT Valtteri Bottas | 1 | 3 | 1841.8s | S → M |
| COL Franco Colapinto | 1 | 3 | 1844.9s | M → H |
| GAS Pierre Gasly | 1 | 3 | 1844.5s | M → H |
| HAM Lewis Hamilton | 1 | 3 | 1845.0s | S → M |
| HUL Nico Hulkenberg | 1 | 3 | 1844.0s | M → H |
| ANT Kimi Antonelli | 1 | 3 | 1842.7s | H → M |
| LAW Liam Lawson | 1 | 3 | 1841.2s | M → H |
| LAW Liam Lawson | 2 | 12 | 31.1s | H → M |
| ALO Fernando Alonso | 2 | 23 | — | S → |
| BOT Valtteri Bottas | 2 | 27 | 35.3s | M → S |
| HUL Nico Hulkenberg | 2 | 27 | 24.2s | H → M |
| PER Sergio Perez | 2 | 27 | 28.4s | S → M |
| SAI Carlos Sainz | 2 | 27 | 24.5s | H → M |
| OCO Esteban Ocon | 2 | 27 | 27.0s | H → M |
| VER Max Verstappen | 2 | 28 | 24.7s | M → H |
| ANT Kimi Antonelli | 2 | 28 | 24.8s | M → M |
| ALB Alexander Albon | 2 | 46 | 26.4s | H → S |