Arouca favoured (62%) Key factors: • The model expects Arouca to create significantly more chances (2.1 xG vs 0.9 xG). • Estrela are missing key attacker Jeremy Arévalo (Back problems). • Estrela have been defensively average. • Playing at home is a factor in Arouca's favour. • Arouca have had a long break of 22 days and may take time to find their rhythm. Most likely scoreline: 1-1.