Liga Portugal
— Matchday 10
Arouca
vs
Nacional
1X2
Arouca
57.1%
Draw
23.6%
Nacional
19.3%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.2%
Under 2.5
47.8%
BTTS
Both Score
51.8%
No
48.2%
Double Chance
Arouca or Draw
80.8%
Arouca or Nacional
76.4%
Draw or Nacional
42.9%
Draw No Bet
Arouca
74.8%
Nacional
25.2%
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
70%
Home Team Over/Under 0.5
Arouca scores
83.7%
Arouca fails to score
16.4%
Home Team Over/Under 1.5
Arouca 2+ goals
54%
Arouca 0-1 goals
46%
Away Team Over/Under 0.5
Nacional scores
61.5%
Nacional fails to score
38.5%
Correct Score
1-1
11.3%
1-0
11%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
0-0
6.7%
Half-Time Result
Arouca at HT
41.5%
Draw at HT
40.8%
Nacional at HT
17.7%
1st Half Over/Under 0.5
1st half goal
70.5%
No 1st half goal
29.5%
1st Half Over/Under 1.5
1st half Over 1.5
35.2%
1st half Under 1.5
64.8%
Half-Time/Full-Time
Arouca / Arouca
35.6%
Draw / Arouca
18.8%
Draw / Draw
14.5%
Nacional / Nacional
10.4%
Draw / Nacional
7.6%
Arouca / Draw
4.6%
Nacional / Draw
4.5%
Nacional / Arouca
2.8%
Arouca / Nacional
1.2%
Model Reasoning
Arouca favoured (57%)
Key factors:
• The model expects Arouca to create significantly more chances (1.8 xG vs 1.0 xG).
• Nacional's defence is depleted with 2 defender(s) missing.
• Nacional are badly out of form, managing just 1 win(s) in their last 5.
• Playing at home is a factor in Arouca's favour.
• Nacional's attacking numbers are underwhelming.
Most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Model: dc-v7-comp-mu
Recent Form
Arouca
D
L
D
W
W
Nacional
L
L
L
L
W
Squad News
Arouca
No known absences
Nacional
- Injured Léo Santos Defender · Torn lateral knee ligament
- Injured Ulisses Defender · Broken ankle
- Suspended Matheus Dias Midfielder · Suspension
Season Stats
9
Played
9
17
Points
7
12
Goals Scored
10
7
Goals Conceded
18
+5
Goal Diff
-8
5
Clean Sheets
2
Head to Head
2 matches played
Arouca
Draws
Nacional
Last meeting (21 Feb 2026): 3-0