Nacional favoured (47%) Key factors: • A slight edge in expected goals for Nacional (1.4 vs 0.9). • Playing at home is a factor in Nacional's favour. • Alverca are badly out of form, managing just 0 win(s) in their last 5. • Alverca's attacking numbers are underwhelming. • Nacional are without key defender Ivanildo Fernandes (unknown injury). Most likely scoreline: 1-1.