Nacional favoured (48%) Key factors: • The model expects Nacional to create significantly more chances (1.6 xG vs 1.0 xG). • Playing at home is a factor in Nacional's favour. • Estrela have been defensively average. • Nacional are without key defender Ivanildo Fernandes (unknown injury). • Nacional have had a long break of 14 days and may take time to find their rhythm. Most likely scoreline: 1-1.