Maritimo favoured (47%) Key factors: • A slight edge in expected goals for Maritimo (1.5 vs 1.0). • Playing at home is a factor in Maritimo's favour. • Alverca's attacking numbers are underwhelming. • Maritimo have had a long break of 252 days and may take time to find their rhythm. • Alverca return from a 245-day absence and could be ring-rusty. Most likely scoreline: 1-1.