Bundesliga
— Matchday 4
M'gladbach
vs
Mainz
1X2
M'gladbach
24%
Draw
30.8%
Mainz
45.3%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.7%
Under 2.5
59.3%
BTTS
Both Score
47.1%
No
52.9%
Model Reasoning
Mainz favoured (45%)
Key factors:
• A slight edge in expected goals for M'gladbach (0.9 vs 1.4).
• M'gladbach are without key midfielder Jens Castrop (Shoulder injury).
• Mainz are missing key midfielder Eric Martel (Inner ligament injury).
• Playing at home is a factor in M'gladbach's favour.
• Mainz have been solid recently, winning 3 of their last 5.
Most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Model: dixon-coles-v6-reg
Recent Form
M'gladbach
W
L
W
L
L
Mainz
W
L
W
D
W
Squad News
M'gladbach
- Injured Jens Castrop ★ Midfielder · Shoulder injury
- Injured Nicolas Kühn ★ Attacker · Torn muscle bundle
- Injured Yukhym Konoplya ★ Defender · Inner knee ligament tear
- Injured Daiki Hashioka Defender · Neck injury
- Injured Enzo Leopold Midfielder · Cruciate ligament tear
Mainz
- Injured Eric Martel ★ Midfielder · Inner ligament injury
- Injured Paul Nebel ★ Midfielder · Adductor injury
- Injured Dominik Kohr Defender · Ankle injury
- Injured Silas Attacker · Tibia and fibula fracture
- Injured Silvan Widmer Defender · Patellar tendon problems
Season Stats
2
Played
2
0
Points
4
3
Goals Scored
5
7
Goals Conceded
0
-4
Goal Diff
+5
0
Clean Sheets
2
Head to Head
1 match played
M'gladbach
Draws
Mainz
Last meeting (19 Apr 2026): 1-1