WRC Drivers' Championship 2026
Probability Evolution
Current Standings & Predictions
| # | Driver | Team | Pts | Win % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Elfyn Evans
|
Toyota | 200.0 |
92%
|
+13 |
| 2 |
Sami Pajari
|
Toyota | 171.0 |
6%
|
+2 |
| 3 |
Oliver Solberg
|
Toyota | 157.0 |
1%
|
— |
| 4 |
Takamoto Katsuta
|
Toyota | 160.0 |
1%
|
-3 |
| 5 |
Thierry Neuville
|
Hyundai | 125.0 | <1% | — |
Model Reasoning
Elfyn Evans
92%
Elfyn Evans is the strong favourite (92.2%). Currently leads the championship with 200 points. Calendar favours this driver — 4 of 4 remaining rallies are on gravel, where the Elo rating is 1577. In simulations, finishes the season with an average of 266 points in P1.1.
Sami Pajari
6%
Sami Pajari has an outside shot at the title (6.2%). Currently P2 in the standings with 171 points, 29 behind the leader. Calendar favours this driver — 4 of 4 remaining rallies are on gravel, where the Elo rating is 1551. In simulations, finishes the season with an average of 232 points in P2.4.
Oliver Solberg
1%
Oliver Solberg is mathematically possible but unlikely (0.9%). Currently P4 with 157 points, 43 points off the lead. Has ground to make up but 4 rallies leave enough room to close the gap. Calendar favours this driver — 4 of 4 remaining rallies are on gravel, where the Elo rating is 1546. In simulations, finishes the season with an average of 217 points in P3.4.