WRC Drivers' Championship 2026
Probability Evolution
Current Standings & Predictions
| # | Driver | Team | Pts | Win % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Elfyn Evans
|
Toyota | 162,0 |
60%
|
-9 |
| 2 |
Sébastien Ogier
|
Toyota | 125,0 |
19%
|
+14 |
| 3 |
Takamoto Katsuta
|
Toyota | 151,0 |
16%
|
+3 |
| 4 |
Sami Pajari
|
Toyota | 116,0 |
2%
|
— |
| 5 |
Thierry Neuville
|
Hyundai | 95,0 |
2%
|
— |
| 6 |
Oliver Solberg
|
Toyota | 103,0 |
1%
|
-6 |
| 7 |
Adrien Fourmaux
|
Hyundai | 95,0 |
1%
|
-1 |
Model Reasoning
Elfyn Evans
60%
Elfyn Evans is the strong favourite (59.8%). Currently leads the championship with 134 points. Calendar favours this driver — 6 of 6 remaining rallies are on gravel, where the Elo rating is 1555. In simulations, finishes the season with an average of 216 points in P1.6.
Sébastien Ogier
19%
Sébastien Ogier is a serious title contender (18.6%). Currently P3 in the standings with 102 points, 32 behind the leader. Calendar favours this driver — 6 of 6 remaining rallies are on gravel, where the Elo rating is 1596. In simulations, finishes the season with an average of 196 points in P2.7.
Takamoto Katsuta
16%
Takamoto Katsuta is a serious title contender (16.3%). Currently P2 in the standings with 131 points, 3 behind the leader. Calendar is unfavourable — 6 of 6 remaining rallies are on gravel, not this driver's strongest surface (1489 Elo). In simulations, finishes the season with an average of 195 points in P2.8.